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May 10, 2010


James Conran

Hi Michael.

Just to be clear, the graph showing decline in employment measures absolute figures, i.e. in Ireland's case a fall from roughly 2.1 million employed to roughly 1.8 million?

I wonder how much of this is emigration, i.e. what the fall in the employment/working age population ratio has been.

Michael Taft

James - the graph shows employment loss. The QNHS can help in answering your specific questions. Using the latest data over the last two years (Q4 2007 - Q4 2009), employment fell by 254,000 (seasonally adjusted). The number of unemployed rose by 174,000. Which leaves a difference of 80,000. Some of this difference is the falling out of the active labour force (e.g. return to education, retrun to home-work). As well, we have to factor in the marginally attached such as discouraged workers (available to work but not actively seeking work since they don't believe there is jobs). This latter category increased by 15,100.

As to working out emigration figures, this is difficult as we don't have up-to-date figures and they are only compiled on an annual basis. The ESRI projects that net emigration was 8,000 last, rising to 60,000 this year and 40,000 next year - a total of 108,000 over the three years. However, these are just projections.

Hope this has been of some help. Get back to me if I can clarify further.

James Conran

Thanks for that, Michael, very helpful.

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