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April 24, 2014

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Ernie Ball

A 'progressive government' led by what progressive party? Labour? Who exactly is responsible for the continuing austerity, the blackmail of Haddington Road, the mooted tax cuts? There is no evidence that Labour was anything other than a willing accomplice. This has not been lost on those who used to make up their base of support, which is why they are at 6%. Nothing differentiates them from FG or FF. A progressive gov't would be nice but there's no party to lead it (and, no, SF or the Socialists is not a credible option).

6to5against

On a small point, I don't see that there will be any significant decrease in the numbers attending primary anytime in the next 10 years. The current birth rate is 15.6 per 1000, which is down on the 2009 figure of 16.8. That represents a fall from about 75,000 babies to 72,000, so there will be a small decrease in the number of junior infants over the next few years.

But the cohort due to leave primary over the next few years were born in the years, say 2002 - 2006. in those years the birth rate was somewhere very close to 15 per 1000, which I believe equated to about 60,000+ births,

So - if I understand it right - each year for the next few years we will be adding over 70,000 to the primary population, while losing something just over 60,000.

The rate of increase is faling, but not the numbers.

And I think I'm right to say that the birth rate went from a record low in the early 90s to a record high about 2008/09, so the total number in education is due to surge at a record level of increase for 15 years+.

All of which - if I'm right - I believe bolsters your central point rather than undermining it.

Niall

@6to5 There is already a significant drop in the birth rate. Figures peaked at over 75,000 in 2009 and fell to 72,000 odd in 2012. The 2013 figure is likely to come in at 68,000 with below 65,000 forecast for 2014. Numbers should fall by around 5% pa for around ten years. This will mirror the fall from 1980 to 1994 when there was just 48,000 births.

Put another way when the class of September 2013, approx. 75,000 leaves for secondary school,it is likely that there will be just 50,000 to repalce them. A number of counties are already in decline, the most notable being Mayo.

Part of the problem is that the decline will not be even. Even now there is a massive surplus of primary school places in some parts of the country, including many urban areas.

Also current school numbers have been filled out by foreign born children. It is likely that there is net emigration at this stage and the recent DSP audit of child benefit seems to confirm this. It found that there approx.. 7000 children no longer in the State for whom Child Benefit continued to be claimed. I understand that this audit programme is to be extended considerably.

Back in 1994, Ireland and Denmark had a similar crude birth rate of 13.4. In the interim ours reached nearly 17 per thousand before falling to approx. 14.9 est in 2013 (CSO figures at the end on May). The Danish rate for last year was just 10.9.

Our excessive crude birth rate is part of our problem.

The Dork of Cork

I can't understand why there is not a conservative social credit movement to fill the Masonic / Talmudic centralization of power grab / coup which has totally destroyed this society.

I guess the society is destroyed so they have won the final battle....now what ?
The fool of the Dail (Oliver J) was dead right all this time.
People were so busy laughing at him when infact the real joke was on them for all this pointless inflationary & deflationary time.
How sad.

Congradulations to the left for giving us their euro vision / our nightmare.
I total propaganda victory on their part.

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