Notes On The Front

Should We be Worried About Unemployment

In the public debate there is a sense that we have ‘solved unemployment’.  Apart from the recession-austerity period, unemployment has been low.  It fell below 5 percent in 2000 and remained there until the crash.  When the recovery started in 2012, it fell from 15 percent to 5 percent just a few years later.  And in the post-Covid period it has remained below 5 percent.  We may be facing into a number of challenges but unemployment doesn’t seem to be one.

Nonetheless, there are a number of early warning signals.

First, unemployment has started to rise, if only incrementally. 

Unemployment has increased from 4.1 percent in May to 4.8 percent in October.  In these five months, the numbers unemployed rose by nearly 20,000, or a 17 percent rise off a low base.  Not reason to panic, but certainly grounds for concern.  The key question is whether this is a once-off or the beginning of a trend.

Second, there is the warning from the Central Bank governor that the full impact of recent interest rate increases has yet to be felt in the domestic economy. 

‘The full impact of higher interest rates still lies ahead, [the Central Bank] warns. Even ahead of that there are what are described as tentative signs of a slowdown in export flows and corporation tax receipts, it notes. In both cases that slow down follows years of growth.’

In our property-centric focus, we sometimes forget that the intent of interest rate rises is to depress economic activity in order to bring inflation under control.  And this means depressed employment growth.  Rising unemployment is the price we pay for inflation control; at least, in the Central Bank’s model.

Third, are the Government’s projections for a slow-down in the job-creation rate. 

• In the 12-year period prior to the crash, employment was growing each year on average by over 6 percent.
• In the 8-year period prior to Covid, employment was growing each year on average by nearly 3 percent.

What is the Government projecting out to 2030?

After the post-covid bounce in 2023, employment increase slow considerable.  By 2030, job creation will only grow by ½ percent.  This shouldn’t be too surprising given the Government’s general projection of slowing growth rates throughout the economy (as discussed here).  This will have implications not only for household living standards as more people struggle to find work in a slowing labour market; it will impact on revenue generation. Lower job growth leads to lower income and consumption tax revenue.  And if unemployment rises, this imposes a cost.

However, the Government doesn’t believe slowing job creation will lead to higher unemployment.  They project that unemployment will remain below 5 percent out to 2030.  This is a function of a slow-down in the labour force – all those people who are either in a job or looking for one.  If labour force growth declines in tandem with the slow-down in job creation, unemployment will remain stable.  But this raises its own questions.

The Government projects that growth in the labour force will fall from 1.4 percent in 2024 to 0.6 percent in 2030.  The labour force will grow by approximately 41,000 next year.  In 2030 that growth will fall to 18,000.  Why?  Fewer young people leaving education to go into the labour force?  Emigration?  Increased exit of older people?  In the budget papers, the Government was silent – though it did state in the Stability Programme Update that ageing demographics would depress labour force numbers.

Whatever the reasons, we may have a problem.  We need more people to do more things – from construction, ICT to caring, health education professions, along with business specialists. This is on top of providing employment for young people coming out of education and encouraging more people back in the workforce (e.g. parents).   A slowing labour force could impede our ability to address our infrastructural deficits or supply the resources needed to expand business opportunities.

In policy terms we need to anticipate rather than wait for rising unemployment to overwhelm us.  And we need to get beyond the self-congratulatory commentary that employment has never been higher.  Of course, it’s never been higher.  Unless employment actually falls, this will always be the case:  every month, every quarter, every year. 

And whatever about slowing job-creation, if it falls starts to fall – or fall below the growth in our labour force – we could be in a world of hurt.

 

The Great Slowdown

While the discussion about falling GDP and its impact on the Irish economy is important – especially in assessing the performance of our multi-national sector – we are in danger of missing a larger point.  We are entering into a Great Slowdown, an extended period of low growth which will impact on a range of indicators; but most importantly, on incomes and living standards.

The Government is projecting that real economic growth (GNI*) will average 2 percent per year out to 2030.  However, when we factor in population growth (GNI* per capita) this could fall to less than 1 percent per year for rest of the decade. 

How does this compare with previous periods of growth?

• In the boom years from 1995 – 2007, the average annual growth rate per capita was nearly 4 percent. Of course, in the latter part of this period this growth, based on property-related activity, was unsustainable.

• In the recovery period after austerity, recession and stagnation average annual growth rates came in at a healthy 3.2 percent.

• However, out to 2030 average annual growth rates are projected fall to less than one percent.

This is not surprising.  Analysts have been predicting this slowdown for some time - here and throughout Europe. 

Cliff Taylor describes the current situation:  higher interest rates dampening economic activity, cost-of-living crisis dampening consumer spending, weakening international markets with a jobs market topping out.  Cliff describes these as ‘amber lights’.

It is tempting to think we can return to higher growth rates once we have turned the corner on these issues:  when interest come down, when we exit the current cost-of-living crisis, when international trade picks up again.  This might be a mistake. 

The medium-term growth slowdown is structural.  There are many explanations: ageing demographics, climate change, technological disruption (increasing use of AI and automation).  Given that these and other factors could hit all at once – and in some respects, they already are - many commentators have used the term ‘polycrisis’.  Whatever the reasons, it will have considerable implications for incomes and living standards, and set up fierce competition over a dwindling pool of resources.

We do not need to be resigned.  A growth slowdown will put new emphasis on a number of appropriate policy responses.

• First, even a small increase in average annual growth, over the long-term, can help lift the economy, generate higher tax revenue and promote living standards.  Increasing growth (i.e. productivity) will require higher investment in education, or human capital.  It will also require more democratic practices at firm level and sectoral – collective bargaining, employee participation, enterprise councils, worker-directors, sectoral planning – which have all been shown to promote growth and reduce inefficiencies.
• Second, it will put more emphasis on redistribution.  This is not just about cash transfers. Extending free public services will play a key role in reducing household and business costs.  This needs to be accompanied by a drive to eliminate poverty, especially child poverty.  The Society Vincent de Paul found that poverty imposes a high social, economic and fiscal cost.  Raising income floors – whether wages or fixed incomes – can help reduce this cost. 
• Third, John Fitzgerald reminds us that national income is not the only or even best way to measure life quality.  Environment, stability, security, and climate all play a role in people’s preference, especially working hours.  Therefore, in constructing a response to a growth slow-down, special attention will need to be paid to life quality issues, workers’ preference and their ability to exert more control over their working and work-free lives.

The growth slowdown demands an egalitarian and democratic response.  Most of all, it requires a different kind of debate.  There is a danger that the next general election (which looks sooner rather than later) will be fought on the assumptions of high growth.  Not only will this disappoint down the line, it could risk over-looking those policies which can actually advance strong living standards, policies that are deliverable and necessary in a low-growth environment.

There is no iron-law that states that a low-growth economy means a low life-quality environment. But progressives and trade unionists first need to analyse what is likely to happen in the economy in the years ahead and prepare the appropriate policy responses.   The last thing we need to do is promote policies that are out of step with a changing political economy.

 

The Employers Strike in the Childcare Sector

An employers’ body – the Federation of Early Childcare Providers – has called a three-day ‘strike’ in the childcare sector.  They are closing down creches and early years’ services over their claim that the government is not providing enough money to private sector owners to run the services. 

However, a SIPTU survey of the accounts of select companies providing early years’ services tells a far different story:  profits, dividends and directors’ remuneration all rising, while providers amassed larger amounts of cash thanks largely to public subsidies.  Are there private companies that are struggling?  No doubt.  How many?  We don’t know.  Is it spread across the entire sector?  No.

If there is a crisis in the childcare sector, the main driver is not that private providers aren’t getting enough subsidies; it is that the current ownership structure of the sector (largely privately owned) is incapable of providing affordable childcare, proper wages and services accessible throughout the country, in a fiscally efficient manner.

Giraffe Childcare

Giraffe is the largest childcare chain in Ireland, operating in 23 locations.  It is owned by a UK firm which is controlled by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension fund.   Their financial accounts only go up to 2020 – they are over a year late in filing their 2021 accounts. However, the first year of the covid lockdown proved profitable to the company.

In 2020, profits rose by 61 percent, to nearly €3.5 million. 

The company more than doubled their cash holdings – to over €5 million. 

In 2019, the company paid €6.5 million in dividends to their owners.  Though the amount paid in 2020 was reduced, nearly €1.7 million was paid.  In that year, the company received €6.7 million in public subsidies through the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme.  In effect, the subsidy helped pay the dividend.

Given the pattern of other private sector childcare companies (see below), when Giraffe management finally get around to filing their 2021 accounts, we should see another bumper year for the company.

Six Select Companies

Taking six companies, which can be categorised as small to medium companies (Links, Cocoon, Grovelands, Little Rainbows, Safari and Tiger) we can see their financials up to 2021, incorporating two years of covid lockdowns, restrictions and public subsidies.

Between 2019 – the year before Covid – and 2021:

• Combined profits for the six companies increased nearly 7-fold, to €6.9 million (though a large chunk of that was due to one company: Links). 

• Combined cash holdings increased by over 3-fold, to €9.1 million

• Directors’ remuneration (another vehicle to extract value from a company) increased by two-fold, to €2.4 million.

These are serious increases, though we won’t know how these companies fared in 2022 for some time (there is usually a lag of 9 months in filing annual accounts).  It should be noted that four of the six companies (two did not report) received over €8 million in covid and other public subsidies, though not all public subsidies may have been reported.

Not all companies report whether they paid dividends.  Besides Giraffe, only Safari reported their dividend status.  They paid €383,000 in dividends in the years 2020-2021 while at the same time reporting the receipt of €143,000 in covid subsidies. 

A Company on Strike

The employers claim that whatever about larger private companies, small and medium sized companies are suffering (though, as stated, the six companies above can be categorised as medium).  There is no doubt this is true of many providers.  But how many?  How do we know?

Let’s look at one company that is going on ‘strike’:  Oakview.  Two Oakview creches (Tallaght and Cork City) filed financial returns.  Of those two, Tallaght went out on strike, and Cork city may have.

These two creches combined generated nearly €600,000 in profits in 2020 / 2021.  In particular, it paid out over half-a-million Euros in dividends (€569,000).  The dividends are paid to Antartic Cub – a holding company of several companies, including Oakview.  This holding company, owned by the Crean family, generated profits of €1.7 million in the two years 2020 / 2021.

Maybe the parents who are experiencing the loss of this service due to the strike might want to ask who benefitted from those dividends and what impact that has on fees.

What Childcare Companies Are Doing With Their Profits

Childcare companies used their profits and cash holdings for a variety of reasons.  In two instances of the above companies surveyed, it paid for expansion of the company (i.e. public subsidy paid for the expansion).  In one other case, public subsidy was used to pay down significant debt.

Somewhat exotically, one company, among other things, diverted resources to invest in luxury property.  From Links childcare 2021 accounts:

“The company advanced an initial loan of €1,500,000 to connected undertaking P. Kelly Villas Limited in a previous financial year and has advanced further loan funding in the current financial year. The loan balance receivable by the company at the financial year end amounts to €3,064,667 (31 October 2020 - €1,500,000) . . . P. Kelly Villas Limited is a company which is registered in Republic of Ireland and is a connected party by virtue of common shareholders and directors.”

Kelly Villas specialises in luxury property rentals in places such as Florida, Lanzarote, Marbella, etc.

No Basis for Claims

The Federation claims that the situation is so dire that creches are increasingly closing down.  However, this is not the case.  The Department has produced data which tracks the number of closures in the period of January to August:

• In 2019: there were 77 net closures (closures minus new start-ups)
• In 2020: there were 77 net closures
• In 2021: there were 62 net closures
• In 2022: there were 80 net closures
• In 2023: there were 38 net closures

If anything the number of closures is falling. This doesn’t look like a sector in crisis.  And the reasons for closures don’t substantiate the employers’ claim.  For instance, when asked the reason for closures in 2022 less than a quarter stated it was due to ‘financial viability’.  

And if so many childcare providers are in financial straits, on the verge of closure, why are so few seeking the resources they would be entitled to?  The Department has stated:

‘. . . only a handful of providers [are seeking] to avail of particular supports available to those in financial difficulty.’

If companies are in financial difficulties – and no doubt there are – there is a fund to assist them.  But few are availing of it.  Maybe because relatively few need such assistance.

The Real Issues

The real issues in the childcare sector are, first, the lack of financial transparency.  Most private childcare companies hide behind reporting exemptions to withhold financial information from the public (all quite legal).  While the employers’ group claim hardship, they never produce data to substantiate this claim.  If they want to be taken seriously they should urge their members to publish their full financial accounts – and publish it on time.

The second related-issue is accountability.  Many of the private employers complain about the ‘bureaucracy’ and ‘red-tape’ involved in accessing funds.  However, what they call red-tape could be the Department of Children attempting to ensure value-for-money from public subsidies. 

Most of all, this begs serious questions about the ownership structure of the early years sector.  Nearly two-thirds of early year services are owned privately (the remainder are community places).  An additional €400 million has gone into the sector and, yet thousands of workers are on low wages and are not being adequately compensated for professionalisation of the workforce.  Staff turnover is still at crisis levels.  Most services are at capacity.  Access to services is becoming more difficult.  Fees are far too high. 

Maybe we are seeing the contradictions of a public service being provided by for-profit interest groups coming to the fore. 

Maybe we are seeing prosperous, profitable companies exploiting the difficulties that some providers are experiencing; exploiting so that they can get more public subsidies and add to their profit line.

Maybe we are seeing the logic of state-provided childcare services emerging in the debate where decent wages would be paid, fees would be reduced to affordable levels and investment would go into the service rather than dividends.

The employers’ ‘strike’ could create a turning point in the debate over childcare and early education.  But not a turn they anticipated:  rather than increase support for more public subsidies to the private sector, the ‘strike’ could provoke an increase in support for a publicly-provided childcare service.

[Note:  all financial accounts are available from the Companies Registration Office but they are behind a paywall]

Shorting our Future

Education is vital to people’s personal development and life chances, to economic growth and productivity, to social prosperity and equality.  But you wouldn’t think so when listening to pre-budget debates.  Among our peer group in the EU (other high income countries), Ireland comes last in terms of educational investment – and it would take billions of Euros to catch up.

That’s according to the OECD’s recent Education at a Glance 2023.  It utilises a helpful measurement: total expenditure per full-time equivalent student.  This avoids problems with using GDP/GNI* as a benchmark as this doesn’t factor in youth demographic.  For instance, in country A, young people make up a quarter of the population while in country B they make up only 15 percent.  The two countries could both spend the same proportion of GDP on education but that would mean country A is underspending on education, given it has more children.

Of course, measuring the spend per student favours higher income countries.  But as we are measuring like-with-like (other high-income EU countries) this is not so much an issue here.  

So what is the OECD telling us (with the help of Eurostat’s data on pupil numbers to get a weighted average)?  Let’s turn to primary education. 

There’s Ireland – at the bottom of the investment table at primary level.

In 2020, we would have had to increase spending at primary level by 16 percent, or over €760 million.  To reach the best performer – Denmark – we would have had to increase spending by nearly half, or a staggering €2.3 billion.

There are even a number of low-income EU countries that spend more than us per primary pupil:  Estonia, Slovenia, and Italy with Portugal and Spain not far behind.

Turning to secondary education (lower and upper secondary education combined), we find a similar pattern.

There’s Ireland again – at the bottom of the table.  However, in money terms we are further behind our peer-group average.  To reach the average, we’d need to increase investment by 31 percent, or €1.4 billion.  To reach the top performer – Austria – spending would have had to increase by €2.4 billion.

Regarding tertiary, or third-level, education, the OECD provides two measurements:  one that includes Research & Development (R&D) and the other that excludes it. 

When we exclude R&D, Ireland comes close to our peer group average, though it would still need to increase spending by over €450 million in 2020 to reach the best performer – Belgium.

However, we would need substantial increases if R&D were included:  €600 million to reach our peer group average and €1.6 billion to reach Sweden, the best performer.

One final measurement:  early childhood education.  This is not an easily comparable sector.  The OECD points out that early childhood education (ECE) services are ‘very diverse’ with variations in the targeted age groups, funding, governance, type of delivery (full-time or part-time), etc.  Further, Ireland’s data reporting is spotty at best.  The following combined spending on ECE and pre-primary and, even here, there may be different categorisation methodologies.  Nonetheless, what data we do have is instructive.

Ireland is at the bottom of the table – by a considerable amount.  While the magnitude may change with more robust data, this is not only consistent with investment in other educational levels, it corresponds with government data on ECE expenditure.

* * *

In the last 10 years, Irish education expenditure has increased by over 40 percent, while total expenditure increased by 30 percent.  So more resources have been directed into education. 

However, as a proportion of national income, education expenditure has fallen during this same period and remained static over the last few years.

Investment in education doesn’t get the same airtime as, say, tax cuts – even though it is far more important for a prospering economy and society.  We are essentially ‘shorting’ our future, suppressing necessary investment in education in order to facilitate tax cuts and a low-tax economy.

We would need to spend billions to reach the average of our peer group; billions more to reach the best performers.  The first thing we need to do to show how out of step we are with other EU countries in our peer group.  

Then we can start having a debate on issues that really matter.

 

Best in the Class

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council is warning against over-spending in this year’s budget – over-spending relative to the 5 percent spending rule.  It could undermine confidence in Ireland’s public finances, warns the Council; it could see a repeat of the mistakes made in the run-up to the crash.  It could, according to the Council, risk plunging us into a pro-cyclical trap whereby more spending risks a deterioration of our fiscal stance in an ever-downward spiral.

These risks and warnings are well-taken; especially as both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have implemented irrational fiscal policies in the past - both prior to and in the aftermath of the crash (even the Fiscal Council aggressively promoted pro-cyclical fiscal policies in the past).  So caution is needed when considering these track records.  However, let’s get some perspective on all this.

First, Irish public finances are stronger than almost all other Eurozone countries – by a considerable margin. 

The EU Commission projects that Ireland will be the only country (bar Cyprus) to run a b budget surplus in 2024 (and that is after excluding the excess corporate tax receipts).  Ireland will be running a surplus of 1.5 percent of GNI*.  The Euro area, on the other hand, is projected to run a deficit of 2.4 percent. 

The International Monetary Fund projects annual surpluses and deficits out to 2026.  While a little bit more tentative, they show that this story will continue:  Ireland (apart from Cyprus) will be the only Eurozone country with a budget surplus.  And the gap between Ireland’s strong performance and the Eurozone average will widen even further.

The situation is similar when comparing debt levels.

The EU Commission projects that, up to 2024, Ireland’s debt level will be well below the Eurozone average.  In 2025 and 2026, the IMF projects that Irish public debt will fall even further compared to the Eurozone.  Irish public debt is falling faster than any other Eurozone country. 

The Government will take credit for this ‘prudent fiscal management’ and in many respects, they deserve kudos.  However, it is easy to run surpluses when you suppress spending.  Even when old age pension expenditure is excluded, Irish current spending would have to increase by approximately €7.5 billion just to reach the average spend of our EU peer group. 

There are a number of important debates in the run-up to the budget.  Whether the Government increases net spending by 5 percent or 6 percent (the reason for the row between the Government and the Fiscal Council) is not one of them.  If the Government ‘breaches’ its spending rule, it will make little difference relative to Eurozone averages and our own fiscal dynamic.

We would still be best in the class.

However, all this glosses over a far more important debate.  If we want to make transformative improvements in public services and social protection, while maintaining a high level of public investment, we will need to significantly increase tax revenue, and without resort to the windfall or excessive corporate tax receipts. 

But this is a debate we’re not getting.  It is looking more and more likely that the recommendations of the Commission on Taxation and Social Welfare will be marginalised.  There will be no road-maps to an enhanced social state.  Overall tax levels will remain relatively low at the cost of social prosperity and economic efficiency.

If that happens, we will be sent to the back of the class.

The Politics of the Universal Social Charge

Two polls, two different narratives.  A Red C poll showed that an overwhelming majority in favour of abolishing the Universal Social Charge.  An Ireland Thinks poll shows that a clear majority want increased public services over tax cuts.  Which is a true reflection of public opinion?  Discuss.

It may not be so contradictory.  People want more services and social supports but they ‘hate’ the USC.  For many, the USC is a legacy of the austerity period – part of a number of socially damaging measures.  That political parties have used the tax as a crude bid for votes (e.g. Fine Gael’s 2016 election promise to abolish it) has created the impression that the USC is an ‘illegitimate’ tax. Add to this the cost-of-living crisis and you have understandable calls for support. 

The USC, however, is a ‘good’ tax. Leave aside the issue of rates and threshold - elements which can be easily changed.  The USC is good tax is because it is simple, transparent and no matter how many tax accountants you hire, you can’t escape it.  The tax has almost no exemptions, reliefs, or allowances – unlike the income tax system.  Most of all, because it attaches itself to nearly all income, relatively small tax rates can yield considerable amount of revenue.

Importantly, the USC is progressive.  Its abolition would be a significant boon for high-income earners.

Someone on €30,000 would receive approximately €11 per week.  The famed ‘middle Ireland’ earner (€40,000) would get about €20 per week.  However, at the top end, someone on €100,000 would get €92 per week while a very high earner would get €322 per week (data taken from Deloitte tax calculator).

More perversely, those on low and average incomes would end up funding their own USC cuts.  The tax took in €4.9 billion in 2022.  Abolishing this revenue would mean longer waiting lists (housing, healthcare, home care), suppressed social protection increases, and squeezed public services which would impact most on older people as they will have greater reliance on health supports.

And it would pretty much wipe out government surpluses going forward (excluding windfall corporate tax revenue). 

Regressive, squeezing public services, wiping out the surplus:  this would return us to the reckless fiscal policies prior to the crash.  Welcome to the politics of abolishing the USC.

Aidan Regan puts it in very trenchant terms (paywalled):

‘Ireland’s corporate tax boom is an invitation to do some very stupid things such as cutting income taxes, including the Universal Social Charge, further shrinking an already extremely narrow tax base  . . . what the 2022 census clearly shows is that Ireland’s population is growing way beyond what our infrastructure and public services can handle.  We ned a decade of ambitious forward-thinking investment, not tax cuts.  We need to expand our tax base to finance future growth.’

Can’t disagree with a word of this – or any other word in his article.  But I suspect that, in political terms, reliance on these arguments alone won’t win the public debate (though I really, really hope I am mistaken).  Armed with Aiden’s logical arguments, progressives can make two strong counter-arguments.

First, show how an expansion of public services, government consumption and social transfers can make a transformative impact on people’s living standards in the short-term.  Relying on a stronger social state can achieve far better results than crude tax-cutting. 

In this regard, I will propose in my next post how progressives can argue that Budget 2024 should be a budget for families with children.

Second, we should argue for real tax reform.  Here is just one example.

• Merge USC with social insurance to create a greatly strengthened social insurance system.

An enhanced social insurance system could start to deliver a range of pay-related in-work benefits (e.g. family, old age, illness and disability, caring, etc.).  This would significantly increase living standards for all workers.

And like many other EU countries, we could provide health benefits from the Social Insurance Fund:  free or heavily subsidised GP visits and prescription medicine.

This would, however, create a hole in Exchequer finances (public finances excluding social insurance).  But we have the Commission on Taxation and Social Welfare proposals to extend the tax base primarily through increased taxes on capital, wealth, assets and property.  And we would still need to increase employers’ PRSI incrementally over the long-term.

This is not so radical sounding.  The Government published a report on merging USC and PRSI back in 2018.  The report came up with five options.  Progressives would do well to re-read this report with a view of privileging social insurance as part of a strong social state.

[Note:  for a more radical tax reform option, see here for a proposal to abolish income tax and replace it with a reformed and enhanced USC.  I still think it is valid.]

The last thing progressives should do is allow the Right to advance tax cuts as a solution to the cost-of-living crisis or an efficient way to assist low and middle-income earners.  Lasting solutions lie in an expanded social state – public services, social insurance, and economic and social investment. 

Let’s start talking about that now.

Manufacturing an Unnecessary Row

If the government parties were committed to implementing the proposals in the Programme for Government, they would not be having this current tax-cut row.  The Programme states:

‘In Budget 2021, there will be no change to income tax credits or bands. From Budget 2022 onwards, in the event that incomes are again rising as the economy recovers, credits and bands will be indexed linked to earnings.’

The Programme can’t be any clearer.  No indexation in 2021 (due to uncertainty during the Covid pandemic and lockdowns).  Starting in 2022, income tax credits and bands will be indexed to wage growth.  The Taoiseach was adamant:

‘I’ve been very clear that I’m not tying myself to any specific policy, I am tying myself to the programme for government commitment, which is that we index tax bands and credits.’

So what should happen in Budget 2024 if the Programme’s tax commitments are honoured?  Let’s remember that Fine Gael is calling for an increase in the standard rate tax band of €4,000 and personal tax credits by €100.

If the Programme for Government’s commitment were honoured – that the Standard Rate Tax Band be increased in line with wages – then next year the tax band would be increased by €432 – not Fine Gael’s proposed €4,000. This is due to wages increasing by 14.5 percent between 2021 and 2024.

If we apply the Programme for Government’s formula to personal tax credits, they would rise from €1,775 to €1,890 – an increase of €115.

Of course, all commitments in a Programme must be judged against unexpected events.  And one can reasonably argue that the high levels of inflation we are experiencing were unexpected.

Therefore, let’s index the tax measures mentioned in the Programme to inflation. 

Between 2021 and 2024, the Government projects inflation to rise by 16.2 percent – higher than the wage increase rate.  This would mean the standard rate tax band would increase by €1,030; again, well below the Fine Gael demand.

Inflation-indexing personal tax credits would see them rise by €143 – from €17,75 to €1,918.

Given that a formula for increasing the standard rate tax band and personal credits has already been agreed by the three parties in the Programme for Government, what is the basis for abandoning this commitment?  This question has not been asked in the debate.

Opposition parties (and even Fianna Fail and the Greens) shouldn’t feed this unjustified demand.  Rather, they should stick to the Programme commitment - with a slight amendment of indexing increases to the unexpected inflation increases).

This would mean (with a little rounding):

• Increase the standard rate tax band by €1,050
• Increase personal tax credits by €145

This would free up about €1 billion from Fine Gael’s tax demand which has been estimated to cost €1.5 billion.

Are there better ways to spend this €1 billion to assist ‘middle Ireland’ – and ‘low-income Ireland’ as well?

That will be subject of my next post.

Most Middle-Income Earners Won't Benefit

The Taoiseach is making a big play for ‘middle Ireland’.  In an interview with the Irish Times he stated:

‘. . . our basis for participation in this Government is that middle Ireland gets looked after, and that’s looking after working people. . . So we’d be very clear in this Government that we want income taxes reduced.’

To this end, Fine Gael is proposing:

• A major tax cut: an increase in the standard rate tax band of €4,000 – from €40,000 to €44,000 for a single person. Everyone earning above €44,000 would get €800.  Anyone earning below €40,000 would get nothing.

• A minor tax cut: an increase in personal tax credits of €200.  This would mean an additional €3.86 per week for all workers in the tax net.

Fine Gael is claiming these cuts will bring considerable benefit to middle income earners: €1,000.  However:

• Most workers will get less than €4 per week as they won’t benefit from the increase in the standard rate tax band.

• The majority of middle-income earners will not receive the major tax cut and will have to content themselves with less than €4 per week as well.

Let’s look at the evidence that most middle-income earners will not be the primary beneficiaries of Fine Gael’s tax cuts.

Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

SILC measures all income – from employment and social transfers –broken down into deciles.  If we take the 5^th and 6^th deciles as ‘the middle’ we find:

The average weekly income from employment for households is €718 – or an annualised €37,400; below the top rate tax band which is the entry level to Fine Gael’s major tax cut (i.e. €40,000).  A problem with SILC data, however, is that it is based on household income.  So we don’t know how many people in the household are in-work or are working full-time or part-time.  So this €718 could be earned more than one worker.

It should be noted that in the higher 7^th decile, weekly employee income is approximately €1,100.  However, if two persons work in this household, they, too, may be well below the €40,000 benchmark.

So while we can’t estimate how much an individual earns from the SILC data, household market income doesn’t suggest that this particular ‘middle’ would benefit from Fine Gael major tax cuts.

CSO Data

The CSO’s Administrative Data Sources shows that in 2021, median earning was €644.55 – or an annualised €33,600.  We can project earnings in 2023 by applying the 3.3 wage increase last year and the Government’s projected 5.6 percent wage increase this year.  Median is an important metric as it represents that point at which 50 percent above and 50 percent earn below.

• In 2023 we can project median earnings to be a weekly €703 – or an annualised €36,700.

That ‘middle’ income earner is well below the top rate of tax; well below Fine Gael’s main tax cut threshold. 

The CSO also produces the Earnings Hours and Employment Costs Quarterly Survey.  This is the main database for earnings.  What does this tell us?

In 2022 average weekly earnings was €881.   Again, if we apply the Government’s projected wage increase of 5.6 percent this year, we find:    

• In 2023 the estimated average weekly earnings will be €931 – or €48,500 annually.

However, this is the average and doesn’t tell us what the middle, or median, income is.  The Administrative Data source suggests that the median is 20 percent below the average. If so:

• In 2023 the estimated median weekly earnings will be €745 – or an annual €38,800.

Again, this ‘middle earner’ won’t benefit from Fine Gael’s main tax cut.

Revenue Commissioner Data

The Revenue Commissioner provides detailed data on the range of income from employees.  But there are problems:  first, the latest data is 2019; second, a high number of low earners are actually pensioners not in employment (though some would be); third, about a quarter of the data comes from the combined income of ‘married couples’ so we don’t know what they individually.  So we should treat the following as indicative. 

In 2019, the middle cohort (the middle third) earned between €16,000 and €37,400.  The median income was €25,800.

If we adjust the income range by the increase in wages up to 2023 (20 percent), we find that the middle cohort earned between €19,200 and €44,900.  The median income is estimated to be €31,200.

This shows that while most of the upper third of income earners would benefit from Fine Gael’s main tax cut, most of the middle third wouldn’t.

If we could adjust the Revenue Commissioners table by removing pensioners and disaggregating married couples’ joint income, we’d probably find that range of income for the middle third and the median income to be higher.  But it wouldn’t change the main story-line; namely, that the majority of middle-income earners wouldn’t benefit from Fine Gael’s main tax cut.

* * *

While each data source has its own challenges, they tell a similar story:  namely, that most employees, and most middle-income employees, would get less than €4 year per week from Fine Gael’s tax cut proposals.

Even if one didn’t care about the impact of such tax cuts on inequality, the ability to fund European-level of services, the resources to fund in-work benefits (which would really benefit middle-income earners), on economic and social investment – even if you didn’t care about any of this, you would still have to conclude that Fine Gael’s tax cuts for most workers is pretty minimal.  The big winners would be higher earners – those that have a better capacity to absorb the current cost-of-living crisis.

We need a better, more informed debate on ‘middle Ireland’.

 

 

 

The Current Cost-of-Living Crisis is Not Temporary

The background noise in the public debate is that since inflation is ‘easing off’, prices should start coming down. We have heard this in the coverage over the meeting between the Government and representatives of the food sector.  However, this misrepresents how inflation impacts on living standards.

If the rate of inflation falls this doesn’t mean prices fall.  It just means prices are rising at a slower level.  The inflation of last year and this year becomes embedded in our living costs going forward. 

Last year, inflation ran at 8.1 percent.  This year inflation is projected to slow to 4.9 percent.  However, this only means that prices are rising at a slower pace.  Over the two years, inflation will rise by 13.4 percent.  By 2026, while price rises are projected by the Government to settle down to 2 percent annually (a manageable and desirable level), prices will have risen by 21 percent over the five-year period.

Of course, within this mix there will be some products or services where prices actually fall back.  For instance, energy products have fallen by 6 percent since their high point in October 2022.  Still, non-energy prices have continued to rise.

Inflation’s legacy will be a drag on household living standards for years to come. 

There are two ways to overcome this crisis:  reduce prices and/or increase income.  That profits have been driving prices is discussed here.  Increasingly, the debate has turned to price controls though it is hard to see the Government going down this route.  They refrained from doing this with energy costs.  What chance they will start with bread?

The second way is to increase incomes.  Gross wages will have to rise by 5 percent each year between 2023 and 2025 to match inflation by 2025. Even if this were achieved, this would only bring employees back to 2021 levels in real terms.  A number of years of income growth will have been lost.

Even so, wage increases of 15 percent between now and 2025 looks to be a steep hill.

During the period of recession and austerity, average weekly earnings fell.  They started rising (slowly) in2013.  In 2019, the year before the pandemic, average earnings increased by 3.6 percent.  They increased further in 2020 and 2021 but this would have been affected by compositional changes.  Last year average earnings rose by 3.3 percent.

Wage growth of 5 percent for an extended period might be achievable in the context of a tight labour market – low unemployment, full capacity.  An increase in union membership would also help.  But it will be challenge.

Some will argue (as the Taoiseach has) that cutting income tax will ‘put more money in people’s pockets’ and, so, assist in fending off price increases.  This is a poor argument.

For the single average earner on €46,000, the gross wage increase was 3.3 percent.  When tax cuts are factored in, the increase rose slightly – to 3.5 percent.  For the single average earner in the wholesale/retail sector, the tax cuts made only a fractional difference.

The dangers of going down the tax-cut route are two-fold: first, it diverts resources away from reducing prices in public services (e.g. public transport fares, childcare, free textbooks at secondary level, etc.).  Second, such tax cuts are potentially regressive.

Let’s say we were able to increase wages across-the-board over the next three years to bring them back to inflation.  We have another, larger problem.  Namely, that we already have the highest living costs in the EU.

In 1995, Irish prices were below the EU average.  However, over the years, living costs have increased to the point that they are now the highest in the EU.  They are even above Denmark which has always been a high-cost economy.  The Danes, however, have compensated their high costs through higher nominal wages, better resourced public services and a more generous social protection system.  We haven’t. 

The current cost-of-living crisis will subside, either through market equilibrium or the ECB raising interest rates even if they push European economies into recession.  This crisis will pass, though it will leave considerable economic and social damage in its wake.  

The point is this.  Even after the current cost-of-living crisis we will still be in a . . . cost of living crisis.  We will still have one of the highest living costs in the EU, if not the highest.

The question, therefore is:  what do we do then?

 

Searching for Profits

There is a growing debate over why prices are so high, why prices aren’t falling, what is driving prices.  Conor Pope has another instalment in his series on price outrages.  Answers vary according to sectors.  But one of them must be rising profits. Profits now take a bigger slice of the price of goods and services in the domestic sector than wages.  In the economic sectors dominated by domestic-owned enterprises in 2021:

• Total profits (gross operating surplus) made up €97.4 billion
• Total employee compensation made up €92.3 billion

This is unusual.  In modern economies, wages (employee compensation) usually exceed profits, though the history of most European countries has seen wages fall as a share of income over the long term, with profits rising.

Of course, when measuring the Irish economy, one has to introduce caveats.  In this instance, profits are boosted by aircraft leasing which are removed by the CSO when assessing national income (GNI*). This is because aircraft leasing, while domestically-owned, has little impact on domestic activity:  aircraft is bought abroad, flown abroad, maintained and warehoused abroad.   We don’t have profit data for aircraft leasing in the CSO’s productivity database but we can remove the Administrative Services sector, where those profits dominate.

When we do this, profits fall below wages – but not by much.

• Total profits (gross operating surplus) made up €81.8 billion
• Total employee compensation made up €86.6 billion

But the story of rising profits remains. 

Prior to the crash, profits and wages rose together – that is, they shared out productivity gains equally.  The crash drove down profits which is usual in periods of economic contraction.  However, since 2012, profits have nearly doubled while wages rose by less than 50 percent. 

Importantly, during the two years of the pandemic, profits, excluding administrative services, increased at an even faster pace.  Between 2019 and 2021:

• Profits rose by over 21 percent
• Wages rose by 8.6 percent

Unfortunately we don’t have data for 2022.  Again, we have to caveat these numbers.  The lockdown period saw considerable changes in sectoral composition meaning that economy-wide data is likely to be volatile.  It is likely this data won’t settle until this year.  But the pattern of rising profits is well established.

We can also get in an insight into the inputs into gross output, or price. Unfortunately, for the domestic sector, we only have data for manufacturing.

Unsurprisingly, materials and services used in production make up the largest amount of inputs.  Energy, in 2021, makes up a small amount but this will have risen in 2022 with the price hikes.

The key point is that profits (capital) make up 22 percent of total output while wages make up only 15 percent.  Profits make up a bigger slice of price than wages. 

It is important to remember that while profits economy-wide are rising, they may not be rising uniformly across all sectors, or across Irish and foreign-owned enterprises.  Unfortunately, the data does not allow us to safely assess profit increases at sectoral level given the data distortions by multi-nationals.

We would probably find that many businesses are also suffering from a profit-price spiral.  One example of this would be businesses that purchase energy as part of their inputs.  If there are ‘excess’ profits in energy, then businesses as well as households will be paying over the odds.

What all this calls for is a greater focus on profits.  When it comes to wages, we get up-to-data on a quarterly basis.  It is possible to bread down this data by sex, age, size of enterprise, sector, public/private sector, region and even county-level, etc.  We get a wall of relatively-contemporaneous numbers when it comes to wages.  And a further benefit is that this data is not distorted by multi-national tax and legal strategies.

However, when it comes to profits the data can lag by two to three years with few details.  You are left with putting together a puzzle with a lot pieces missing.

This is further exacerbated by the fact that many companies do not have to file complete company accounts, laying out their profit-loss accounts and balance sheets.  Full and partial exemptions include small companies (which can still have significant commercial activity), companies based abroad – especially headquartered in tax havens, and private unlimited companies (e.g. Dunnes Stores). 

What we need is Freedom of Economic Information to operate alongside the current Freedom of Information legislation.  This would require:

• The Government to increase resources to the CSO to allow them to gather and publish contemporaneous data on profits on a par with wages.

• All companies that do business in the state publishing their full company accounts in a timely manner.

• Providing free access to company accounts. Currently, people have to pay to get accounts from the Companies Registration Office.  This service should be free.  The UK provides free company information so why can’t we?

We need to get a better understanding of the role of profits in the economy – who makes how much and what is done with profits (re-investment, retention in the company, dividends, etc.). 

We know that profits are driving prices.  We are in a profit price spiral.  Greater attention on profits will help inform policy, identify price-gouging and, potentially, name and shame.  Most importantly, it would provide the information the Government needs to control and eventually bring down prices.

What the President Said

The President, Michael D. Higgins, has upset some economists.  According to a front-page Business Post article entitled ‘Economists round on President over ‘lazy’ and ‘uniformed spiel’: 

“Economists have rounded on President Michael D. Higgins and claimed comments made about their profession are ‘lazy’, ‘outdated’, ‘uninformed’ and ‘incomprehensible’.

Of course, it was only some economists who made these comments (I spoke to other economists who gave a thumbs-up to the Presidents’ comments). 

So what upset people so?  One was the issue of growth.  The President said:

‘Many economists remain stuck in an inexorable growth narrative . . .  A fixation on a narrowly defined efficiency, productivity, perpetual growth has resulted in a discipline that has become blinkered to the ecological challenge – the ecological catastrophe – we now face.’

This is one of the main themes of his speech – critiquing a growth narrative that fails to acknowledge ecological limits.  I doubt anyone would disagree that ignoring such limits is a really bad idea.  And to be fair, it’s not just that ‘many’ economists remain stuck. Much of the public debate, unfortunately, is stuck in that narrative. 

Some might argue that this is a de-growth argument.  That’s how Jim Power interpreted it:

‘Economist Jim Power said without economic growth it would not be possible to generate the resources needed to create a functioning society and address issues such as climate change.  “Give us a decade of zero growth and see how that works out.”’ 

The President anticipates this argument:

‘Our obsession with inexorable economic expansion expresses, perhaps, a desire to transcend our material limits and rise above the state of nature. Yet this growth fixation paradoxically increases the potency of those very limits.’

Ironically, a growth narrative without ecological limits lays the ground for devastating de-growth for economies and humanity in the not-too-distant future. 

The President didn’t attack economic growth per se; nor did he attack the economic profession as a whole.   On the contrary, he highlighted the work of a number of economic and social academics who have enriched our understanding of the economy and suggested a ‘ . . . real, emancipatory potential for a new, recovered political economy’.  Further, he didn’t dismiss conventional tools of measurement. On the contrary he gave them a new political economy framework:

‘ . . . all of the prevailing ruling concepts in our present economic discourse – flexibility, globalisation, productivity, efficiency, innovation, indeed economic growth itself – are capable of being re-defined within an active citizen participative state context, given a shared moral resonance, reimagined sustainably within the context of the new ecological-social model.’

Given this, I am at a loss to understand the reaction of some economists. The President’s approach holds out the best hope of becoming unstuck from a potentially dangerous narrative.  Thankfully, there is a growing number of economists who believe this repurposing can be done, that we need such limits, and who are working on new tools to help us achieve these goals.

A second issue raised by critics is the state of economic education.  The President called for a

‘. . . pluralism of approaches in teaching economics . . . The question of how economics is taught. . .  is a matter of utmost importance . . . failure to facilitate a pluralism of approaches in teaching economics is a deprivation of basic students’ rights . . . leading, as it does, to a narrow, blinkered and distorted education in economics and the wider social sciences.’

Again, it’s hard to imagine anyone objecting to this. But is this issue relevant today?  Stephen Kinsella described the President’s views as ‘outdated’:

‘The President is critiquing an economics that existed in the 1970s before I was born . . . he’s not engaging with the subject as it exists in 2023, as it is taught in 2023, and most importantly how it is researched in 2023.’

If that economics existed in the 1970s, it continued to exist four decades on in many places.  Following the Great Recession, a group of UK academics supported students who protested against the way economics was being taught, describing it as an ‘intellectual monoculture’ which was ‘heavily biased in favour of orthodoxy and against intellectual diversity.’

‘Students can now complete a degree in economics without having been exposed to the theories of Keynes, Marx or Minsky, and without having learned about the Great Depression.’

Similar protests occurred in the US – at Harvard University, for instance.  Students from 19 countries staged a trans-national protest stating:

‘The lack of intellectual diversity limits our ability to contend with the multidimensional challenges of the 21st century – from financial stability to food security and climate change . . . The real world should be brought back into the classroom, as well as debate and a pluralism of theories and methods.’

This speaks to the use of models in economic teaching.  Professor Karl Whelan gave a well-argued defence of economic teaching back in 2014:

‘Why don’t models in economics describe how “real people” act? The answer is that human beings are the most complex thing in the world . . .  so economic models could never be literal descriptions of how people behave.  The purpose of theory in economics is to use a model that is literally false but could help us get a better (if still incomplete) understanding of the world than we would have if we weren’t using the model to organise our thoughts.’

If this is so – the need to use false models to get us closer to describing complex interactions which are inevitably resistant to modelling – then the case for a pluralist approach to economic teaching becomes even stronger. 

These reactions described above occurred in the aftermath of the financial crash.  What about today?  A recent survey of economic students in US universities conducted by Rethinking Economics USA and the Roosevelt Network revealed that 78 percent of students have not learned about environmental or ecological economics while another 92 percent have not learned about Stratification or Feminist economics.  91 percent never heard of heterodox economics. 

It may be that, in Ireland, these issues have been resolved and that they were resolved well before the crash. Clearly, the President believes there has been considerable progress:

‘New ideas are fortunately available . . .   Thankfully, we now have a richer discourse than perhaps we did a decade-and-a-half ago at the last point of crisis . . . ‘

In stating this, he cited the recent contributions of a number of economic and social academics.

Again, given this, I am at a loss as to understand the reaction of some economists.  The President is certainly not describing the 1970s.

Ultimately, the quality and breadth of economic teaching in Irish universities is an empirical issue to be examined and tested.  It would be helpful if some academics took up the President’s challenge and surveyed the breadth and plurality of economics education.  I suspect it would be a mixed bag – dependent on the department, module and lecturer as well as under-grad/post-grad courses.  This would hopefully lead to a more constructive and informed debate.

The key word is constructive.  There have been some reactions to the President’s speech that have been anything but.  For instance, Karl Deeter tweeted:

‘The President is Irelands lefty version of Trump. Statements devoid of meaning and ignoring the fact that economic growth is the path out of poverty both here and abroad. Economic growth and rising life expectancy are two of the best metrics there are.’

Yeah, right – as if President Higgins incites far-right, racists, and neo-nazis to trash Leinster House as Trump did with Capitol Hill.  This type of contribution only degrades the debate.

It should always be remembered – the economics profession, like other academic disciplines, does not speak with one voice.  If some economists take issue with the President, they are also taking issue with other economists who would support the President’s remarks.

Once again, the President has laid down a challenge – to use our sometimes-inadequate tools to a better purpose, to construct a growth narrative within ecological limits, to enrich our understanding of economic and social issues through a plurality of analytical tools.  Many people are up to this challenge, including economists.  And if people are opposed to that democratic and sustainable purpose, fair enough.  That’s a political debate.  

So let that debate begin.  But for goodness sake, read what people have said or written before commenting.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

STOP THE PRESS

Just as I was posting this blog, Minister Paschal O’Donohoe intervened in the debate – in particular, on the issue of economics education.  He stated:

“I think it’s brilliant to see a debate underway regarding how economics is taught, and what is the framework through which it is taught.  I think the President was raising some very interesting points regarding the teaching of economics. And I think all those in the economics community here in Ireland, I’m sure will engage with the substance of the claims that he’s making.’

Of his own experience the Minister said:

‘I was a student of economics in the 1990s, when we were taught to believe that financial markets were rational, and that they were able to process all information that was available to them at all times. And I think we’ve all learned, and I’ve certainly learned that that kind of theory and that kind of framework bears little resemblance to the real world.’

When specifically asked about Stephen Kinsella’s comment that the President’s views were out of date, the Minister replied: 

‘I think the President is well up to date on this. And I think if you look at the reading, and thoughts of our President, I think it is pretty obvious he is on top of many of the different themes and trends in economics.’

And all this from someone who couldn’t be considered an ideological ally of the President.

Profits Driving Inflation

With inflation rising unexpectedly in February (and at one of the fastest monthly rates since the beginning of the crisis) the question being increasingly asked is:  are profits driving inflation?  And the evidence increasingly suggests yes.

It’s certainly not wages.  The IMF’s historical study of the relationship between wages and prices (79 periods of rising inflation, including Ireland’s experience in the 1970s) found almost no evidence of a wage-price spiral – an alleged phenomenon used to justify rising interest rates and wage ‘moderation’ (i.e. real wage cuts).

‘Wage-price spirals, at least defined as a sustained acceleration of prices and wages, are hard to find in the recent historical record . . .’

This is confirmed by Ireland’s recent experience.  In 2022, inflation rose by 7.8 percent.  Wages rose by 3.4 percent.  No wage price spiral there.  If anything, wages have had a disinflationary effect.  But what about profits?

• In the US, the Economic Policy Institute found that in the 18-month period between mid-2020 and the end of 2021, profits made up 54 percent of the increase in prices; wages made up only 8 percent.

• In the UK, Unite the Union reported similar findings in the six-month period between October 2021 and March 2022: 59 percent of price rises due to increased profits; 8 percent for wages.  The further found companies with increasing profits well above pre-covid levels.

• The Australia Institute argued that the economy was experiencing a ‘price-profit spiral’ with wages contributing only 15 percent to higher prices.

The Financial Times recently looked at this phenomenon in an article headlined, ‘Unchecked corporate pricing power is a factor in US inflation,’ (behind a paywall).  They published this graph on the front page.  It shows after-tax profit margins in the US rising higher than at any time since 1945.

The ECB has acknowledged this phenomenon.  Isabelle Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, stated:

‘. . . on average, profits have recently been a key contributor to total domestic inflation, above their historical contribution . . . To put it more provocatively, many euro area firms, though by no means all, have gained from the recent surge in inflation . . . Poorer households are often hit particularly hard – not only do they suffer from historically high inflation reducing their real incomes, they also do not benefit from higher profits through stock holdings or other types of participation.’

And staying with the ECB, Reuters reported that at a recent retreat in Finland for the ECB’s Governing Board:

‘Data articulated in more than two dozen slides presented to the 26 policymakers showed that company profit margins have been increasing rather than shrinking, as might be expected when input costs rise so sharply . . . An ECB spokesperson declined to comment for this story.’

The Irish Times’ Cantillon notes:

‘Some of the surprise stickiness in inflation was coming from goods inflation.  This should have come down with the reopening of supply chains but has remained stubbornly elevated, a trend he (Philip Lane, ECB chief economist) associated with increased corporate profits.  Yesterday his boss Christine Lagarde also raised the notion of companies profiteering on the back of inflation . . . ‘

Eurostat’s quarterly sector accounts gives us an aerial view of profits and wages in the non-financial sector.  Focusing on our EU peer-group (other high-income countries) over the last two years up to the 3^rd quarter in 2022 we find that:

• Profits increased by 25.9 percent
• Employee Compensation increased by 12.8 percent

Profits over this period increased at twice the pace as wages.  We find a similar pattern if we go back over three years – starting in the pre-covid period of 2019.

What about Ireland?  Irish profits data can be as unreliable as Irish GDP.  It incorporates income that is produced in other jurisdictions but booked here to take advantage of our low tax. 

The Central Bank has helpfully published data on prices and profits for the domestic sector (excluding multi-nationals).

These measure year-on-year averages.  On average, profit margins made up over 60 percent of prices.  It should be emphasised that this data relates to the domestically-owned sector – it doesn’t factor in multi-national profits. 

However, it is certainly the case that the multi-national sector is more profitable than our domestic sector.  And if we use corporate tax revenue as a proxy, we find that it has more than doubled between 2019 and 2022, implying that multi-national profits have more than doubled. 

* * *

This price-profit spiral raises a number of questions for policy.  If prices are not being driven by wage-fuelled demand, what is the point of ECB’s interest rate increases?  The Reuters report went on to quote Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management:

’It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so.  The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing [increasing interest rates] in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story.’

It is important to note that rising profits are not uniform across the board.  We have less insight into the sectoral breakdown of profits than we have wages.  The ECB’s Schnabel noted that it is larger, export-oriented firms that are benefitting the most with many smaller firm – in particular, in contact-intensive services (retail. Hospitality, transport, entertainment, etc.) - still struggling.

But there’s a more fundamental question: what is the point of profits?  If profits are being direct into increasing dividends and senior executive pay, rather than its social utility (investment), then economies are suffering from a double whammy:  profit-fuelled price increases and ECB interest rate increases.

Answering that question, however, calls for a far more radical review of how we run our economies.  But the quicker we start that review, the quicker we can begin addressing a myriad of problems, including profit-fuelled inflation.

Policy without Evidence, Strategy without Goals

‘Facts are meaningless.  You can use facts to prove anything that’s remotely true.  Facts schmacts.’ (Homer Simpson)

Fact:  private rental accommodation supply is falling.  Between 2016 and 2021, the number of private tenancy registrations fell by 44,000, or 14 percent.  However, this fact doesn’t tell us why supply is falling. 

Is it falling because the number of landlords leaving the market is accelerating?  Or is the number leaving remaining steady, its' just that new entrants are not keeping pace?  Is there data on churn?

Is it falling because of tenant-protection legislation such as rent control?  The picture is not so clear.  We can get some insight from the Rental Sector Surveys conducted by the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB).  One relevant response from landlords is their future intentions to sell.

16 percent and 28 percent of small and medium landlords respectively are likely to sell the rental properties with three years.  That is not an insignificant proportion.  However, the overwhelming majority of landlords do not intend to sell over the next three years; though it should be noted this survey was published in mid-2021 so intentions may have changed.  And even if they sell, they might do so to other landlords who will maintain the rental stock.

Of the minority that are likely to leave, what are the reasons?  Again, the RTB asked this question.

There are various reasons for landlords leaving the market.  For mid-sized landlords, retiring is the biggest.  A significant number cite reasons related to the value of the house.  The regulatory environment doe not appear to be a major reason.  However, some of those who claim they don’t want to be a landlord anymore might be reflecting a more difficult ‘market’ to operate in (though it might also reflect ‘accidental’ landlords who didn’t want to be in the market in the first place) while ‘high’ taxation is another reason.

In short, there is no simple reason or set of reasons as to why landlords are leaving.  To attribute it solely to tenant-protection measures would be a misrepresentation. 

It also suggests that some measures to incentivise landlords to stay in the market – such as tax cuts – might miss the mark.  if most landlords do not intend to leave in the short to medium-term then tax cuts will come with a high deadweight cost - subsidising most landlords to do something they intended to do anyway without the tax cuts.  If landlords are leaving because they are retiring and want to cash in for their pension, cutting taxes may not have much impact.

The Government is rationalising the decision to end the eviction ban on the basis that continuing the ban would lead to a further loss of supply.  What is the evidence for this?  Ministers and Government TDs keep repeating the fact that private tenancies are falling (true) but assume without much evidence that this is due to regulation.  Could the eviction ban increase the tendency for landlords to leave?  Yes, possibly.  By how much?  We don’t know.  If we get rid of the eviction ban will that help incentivise landlords to stay in the market?  Maybe not as many are leaving because of other reasons.  The whole thing is a fog.

At times, the options available to a government all have downsides.  The skill (the ‘art of politics’) is to pursue the least damaging option while taking steps to ameliorate the next damaging option.  It’s hard to imagine anything more damaging than homelessness.  And if the government is confident that the measures to compensate for the removal of the eviction ban would protect tenants from homelessness, then – on the balance of probabilities – they should wait until such measures are on stream. 

Ultimately, we have two problems.  First, a clear lack of evidence to guide housing policy.  It is so bad we don’t even have robust measurements of how many houses we build each year as Lorcan Sirr and Mel Reynolds recently pointed out.  As such, what few facts there are can be manipulated to support unsubstantiated assertions and poor policy choices.

More crucially, we don’t have a policy destination.  What is the long-term plan for the private rental sector?  Where is the capital going to come from to provide truly affordable rental accommodation?  What is the delivery agency?  Institutional investment may divert to a more ‘profitable’ bond market (and, in any event, they veer towards the upper-end of the market).  Small and medium-sized landlords may struggle to generate the income needed to invest in new-build rental units.  The Government has ultra-modest proposals for cost-rental which still may not be affordable.

We have a relatively short window.  While most landlords don’t intend to sell in the next three years, a high number see it as likely over the medium to long-term.

It is long past time to stop treating rental accommodation as a ‘market’ and start treating it as ‘public good’.  The Nevin Economic and Research Institute’s proposals for a unitary ‘network’ in rental accommodation remains the most proactive and potentially transformative model. Such a model could incorporate private landlords, providing them with a real incentive to remain in the market while at the same time as expanding rental units through public intervention.

In the meantime, there is the danger that policy will be supported with little evidence, and strategies will fail to resolve the crisis for lack of direction or goal. 

And in that situation, facts can become meaningless.

The Next Government

It is two years to the next election.  What are the potential alternatives to the current coalition?  What are the chances of the first government led by some other party other than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael?  What are the possibilities for a progressive breakthrough?  This will be the first election where there is a realistic prospect that neither Fianna Fail nor Fine Gael will lead the government. 

With the help of a great website – Ireland Political Indicator, maintained by Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. - we can chart governmental possibilities using opinion poll surveys.

Current Government

The current coalition started out well, mostly due to a strong performance from Fine Gael coming off the handling of the early part of the Covid crisis while it led a caretaker government.

Support for the combined three government parties fell from a high of 53 percent to 40 percent in the summer of last year.  Since then, support has been rising, boosted by a generally favourable response to the budget measures, bouncing back to 44.7 percent.  The Government parties are still falling short of their 2020 election result (50.2 percent) but they may be happy the decline has been reversed. 

Alternative Governments

There are other possible governments.

(a)         Left Leaning

This would involve a coalition of Sinn Fein, Labour, Social Democrats and S-PBP. 

In the last election the combined percentage vote for Sinn Fein, Labour, Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit was 34.4 percent. This has risen to 42 percent; but this is due to Sinn Fein’s performance – seeing their support increase from 24 percent to 33 percent. The other three progressive parties – individually and collectively - have stagnated, bouncing between 9 and 11 percent (in 2020 they received 10 percent).

Ending the year at 42 percent, we can be hopeful – though this support is trending downwards as Government support increases.  The problem, apart from all parties’ willingness to forge a coalition, is that support is fragmented among four parties.   Seat totals could suffer without a strong transfer rate between the parties.  Any seat dividend going to Sinn Fein could come at the expense of other progressive parties.

A progressive government could be boosted by the inclusion of the Greens.  This would, however, require a five-party coalition.  The only Irish government to have that many parties was the inter-party government of 1948-51. 

(b)         Centrist-leaning

Another alternative government would be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. 

Support for Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail combined has remained above 50 percent since autumn 2021, though, it has fallen back recently.  The big question is how realistic this coalition option is.  Stephen Collins notes that data from the recent Ipsos poll (October 2022) showed that 71 percent of Fianna Fail voters supported the arrangement with Fine Gael, while only 8 percent chose a new arrangement with Sinn Fein.  Of course, this can change dramatically in post-election coalition negotiations (e.g. Fianna Fail and the PDs in 1989, Labour and Fianna Fail in 1992).  Nonetheless, it raises a warning sign about the potential of splits, breakaways or loss of support.

(c)          Right-wing Led Minority Government

There is a coalition that isn’t quite on the agenda, but could be depending on future trends; namely a Fine Gael or Fianna Fail-led minority government including Labour, Social Democrats and the Greens.

At this stage, such coalitions would result in a minority government, with a Fine Gael-led coalition ending 2022 at 34 percent while a Fianna Fail arrangement was at 29 percent.  it would seem a tall order for either combination to put together a majority in the Dáil.  But both parties have shown themselves capable of putting together fragmented governments in the past.  Recently, the 2016 government saw three independent cabinet ministers reflecting the nine independent TDs who voted for the Fine Gael Taoiseach nominee.  But it relied on a supply-and-confidence relationship with Fianna Fail, an option that may not be available in the future.

The Taoiseach-Makers

Both the Greens and the independents could have a key role in the composition of the next government. 

Support for both these forces has remained steady.  The Greens are running at between 4 and 5 percent while the Independents and others (including Aontu) have remained around the 13 percent mark.   These two parties could play pivotal roles in government formation.  The Greens, with their focus on environmental issues, have considerably flexibility in negotiating with a range of parties and alternative coalition arrangements.

The independents and others are largely drawn from either gene-pool or parochial politics.  The three technical groups – Regional, Rural and Independent – have a total of 21 deputies.  Of these, only three are identifiably progressive:  Catherine Connolly, Thomas Pringle and Joan Collins.  To the extent that ideologically-compatible TDs can negotiate collectively, they could have influence on both a government programme and cabinet membership. And this could bolster the chances of a return of the current government or a right-wing led minority government.

What do Progressives Want?

What does all this mean for progressives?  It depends on what they want.  For Sinn Fein, that question is easier answered: they want to lead the next government.  Their preference may be for a left-leaning coalition but this will depend, first, on whether other parties will enter such a coalition and, second, whether it can achieve a Dáil majority; neither of which is guaranteed.

What about Labour, Social Democrats and the S-PBP?  The first issue they must confront is marginalisation.  With such low poll numbers, the potential for significant losses with a small movement of first preferences or transfers is high.  Nearly half of the TDs elected in the three parties did not achieve a quota in the last election (8 out of 17).  In some cases where a quota was achieved, there was a heavy reliance on Sinn Fein transfers.  In Dublin South Central, Brid Smith saw 55 percent of her final vote come from Sinn Fein transfers.  A second Sinn Fein candidate in the constituency will put pressure on that seat.

The second issue is what kind of government will allow the smaller progressive parties the maximum opportunity to implement their policies?  Of the potential four formations, two lead to participation in government – one led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, and one led by Sinn Fein. It is highly likely the latter that provides such an opportunity.  Of course, one or two of the progressive parties could help put together essentially a repeat of the current government. But their influence would be severely limited.   

The danger is that parties, pursuing post-election manoeuvrability, seek refuge in electoral non-speak; for example, ‘we campaign on an independent basis and then we negotiate whatever the electoral result is.’  This position avoids providing leadership on that most vital of issues – what will the next government look like.  It leaves open the possibility of lining up behind conservative forces.  Most of all, it won’t work.  During elections, debate rarely focusses on the issues.  It will be one long question with variations on a theme: will you go in with this party, will you go in with that party? 

It is understandable that smaller parties are wary of arrangements in which they can be subsumed.  Interestingly, we have recently seen innovations in government formation.  2016 saw the first confidence-and-supply arrangement between political parties that sustained a minority Government for four years.  2020 saw the first rotating Taoisigh.  Further innovations could be promoted to protect the legitimate interests of all parties in a multi-party coalition.

But more importantly, the party (or parties or forces) that will lead a progressive government will not be based solely on the number of TDs.  It will be those who lead the policy debate – innovative, imaginative and common-sense policies that can challenge the conservative consensus that dominates so much of government policy.  The progressive programme has yet to be written.  We will need more than just ‘spend more’ policies (though we will have to spend more and increase tax revenue in tandem).  Who will write them?  The ones who do will be the leaders, regardless of party size.

Ultimately, all progressives – in political parties, trade unions, civil society groups – have to ask:  do they want to be part of a historic re-setting of electoral competition in Ireland.  In the 1980s, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael took over 80 percent of the vote together.  In 2022 they averaged 40 percent in poll surveys.  We now have the opportunity to finally break this conservative domination and open up a new, more progressive chapter in political history.  While there will be debates over policies and priorities, over the shape of the coalition, the question comes back to what kind of government do we want.

We have two years to make up our minds.

 

Time to Consider Universal Basic Energy

Everyone should be guaranteed a minimum amount of energy, either free or at below-market rates.  This is the principle behind ‘Universal Basic Energy’.  By redistributing costs from lower to higher income groups It has the potential to significantly reduce fuel poverty while incentivising energy efficient investment among groups who can afford it.

The Government, having resisted price controls to date, appear to be curious.  The Business Post reports:

‘The Government has tasked the Economic and Social Research Institute with modelling possible price guarantees which, in theory, would see household and some businesses allowed a portion of their average monthly energy consumption at a guaranteed price per unit of energy.  Anything exceeding the allowed level would be charged at the market rate.’

There are any number of ways this could work.  The New Economics Foundation has done good work on Universal Basic Energy. How would this work in Ireland?

• The Utilities Regulator estimates that average annual consumption of electricity per household is 4,200 kWh (kilowatts per hour). The following assumes that low consumption is related to income-poorer households consume less electricity than higher-income households (smaller homes, fewer appliances, etc.).

• In the absence of a decile breakdown of energy consumption in Ireland (i.e. how much energy is consumed by the lowest 10 percent, the next 10 percent, etc.) the following uses a UK breakdown. The standard price comes from Electricity Ireland via Bonkers.ie.

If 2,000 kWh – nearly half of the average consumption – were provided free to households, with the excess amount charged at the market rate so that energy retailers don’t lose out or require a state subsidy, the following estimates the gains and losses per decile.  It should be emphasised that, given the patchy and missing data, this is for indicative purposes only.

Under this formulation, the price per kWh would rise from the current 43 cent per unit to 83 cent per unit – a near doubling.  However, combined with the free allowance, the lowest income group could see their electricity cut by half, saving nearly €600 per year.  At the highest end, electricity bills could rise by nearly €700, or 27 percent.

This would help meet the two criteria – providing relief to lower income groups while incentivising higher income groups to reduce electricity.

Using the SILC data for weekly income, electricity expenditure for the lowest 10 percent under the current tariff regime is approaching 10 percent of income, falling to less than 2 percent for the highest 10 percent.  With a Universal Basic Energy Free Allowance, electricity costs fall to less than 5 percent for low-income households, with a slight increase at the highest end. In many respects, the free energy allowance would operate like the income tax system which applies a tax-free allowance, or credit, on earnings.

The above is just an exercise.  The ESRI will have access to better consumption and price data, including distributional data.  So the numbers and percentages above would change if consumption patterns are different, but the redistributive dynamic would be broadly similar.  Were the state to subsidise the price, tariffs could be further reduced. 

* * *

There are any number of variations on this model.  The free allowance could be reduced to 1,000 kWh (or even increased).  Instead of a free allowance, it could be charged at below-market rates.  For instance, the first 2,000 kWh could be charged at 10 cents or 20 cents, compared to the current 43 cents market rate.  There are also other considerations.

• The standing charge: the inherently regressive flat-rate charge imposed on electricity consumers regardless of the amount they consume could be capped at a much lower rate (our Electricity Ireland tariff charges €278 per year).  This could be reduced to €50, bringing significant relief to low-income groups.

• A European-style social tariff could be introduced, a means-tested programme that provides subsidies to low-income households to ensure that energy costs don’t exceed the fuel poverty benchmark. This would be helpful to low-income households that may require higher electricity consumption (e.g. households with all day occupancy due to age, disability, caring). 

• A similar free allowance could be introduced for gas and heating oil consumers.

This programme could be introduced on a temporary basis, for the duration of the cost-of-living crisis (though Cliff Taylor argues that high energy prices are here to stay).  However, it could also become a permanent feature to eliminate fuel poverty and incentivise investment in energy efficiencies.

Such a programme requires a substantial public intervention in price-setting mechanisms with an activist Utilities Regulator to ensure there is no profit-gouging.  If energy is a ‘public good’, then the pricing structure is not something to be left exclusively to market operators.

Universal Basic Energy is a example of how markets – in this instance, energy retail markets – can be reformed to achieve social and environmental goals, becoming more democratically accountable and socially fit-for-purpose.

What Do People Want? More Democracy

A couple of months ago, the UK’s High Pay Centre  and abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, published ‘Worker voice in corporate governance: how to bring perspectives from the workforce into the boardroom.’  This is a useful contribution to what can be called the ‘democratisation of the business model’, or workplace democracy. 

Particularly useful is a survey of public opinion on what kind of business sector people want.  This is a survey of UK opinion (carried out by Survation polling) but Irish opinion is unlikely to be qualitatively different.  What do the polling numbers show?

People’s Priorities for Business

Survey interviewees were asked to select three issues from a list of possible business objectives that they felt businesses should care about the most.  They were then asked what they think businesses actually do care about. The results show substantial discrepancies between the public’s priorities and their perception of businesses’ priorities.

There is a large discrepancy between what people want and what they perceive business (owners / managers) want.  At the extremes:

• 58 percent want better pay and working conditions to be the top priority for business. Yet only 18 percent believe that this is actually a business priority.

• Only 10 percent want higher profits for shareholders. Yet, 54 percent believe this is actually business’s top priority.

For people, other priorities include paying a fair amount of tax, delivering value for money for consumers and protecting the environment. 

This is a progressive agenda – living standards, good citizenship (paying tax), delivering value for money (a necessity for business resilience in any event) and environmental protection.  People’s low priority for innovating new products – which are necessary to deliver higher pay and value – can be understood in the context that people may see such innovation as benefiting shareholders, not employees or customers.

Owners and Trade Unions

The survey asked people their perceptions of the contributions that management/owners and trade unions make to economic development and social benefit.

Half of survey respondents believed that trade unions actually stimulate the economy with only a third of people disagreeing.  Nearly 50 percent do not believe businesses (management / owners) behave in a way that is beneficial to society.

In respect of economic development and social benefit, trade unions are considered to make a better contribution than owners and managers.

Workplace Democracy

A number of questions were asked concerning the impact of greater democracy in the workplace.  To the question of ‘How important, if at all, do you think it is that workers have a greater say in the running of the companies that they work in?’ the response was:

• Very or Somewhat Important: 79 percent
• Not Very Important or Not at All: 16 percent
• Don’t Know: 5 percent

This is an overwhelming endorsement of the proposition that employees should have a greater say in the decision-making process in the workplace.

In a follow-up to this question people were asked: ‘If workers were given more of a say in the running of the companies that they work in, what kind of impact do you think it would have on the following?’

The response to the impact of greater workplace democracy is overwhelming – overwhelmingly positive.

• Unsurprisingly, people believe that greater democracy would have a positive impact on pay and conditions, and job satisfaction (70 and 73 percent respectively)

• Investment in sills and training is also high up the list at 67 percent

• The highest percentages for a negative impact are on business-decision making and economic performance - but these come in at 11 percent each (with positive percentages at 53 and 59 percent respectively)

There is one more issue:  worker-directors.  The survey put two statements to people.

Over half of the respondents believe that directors selected by the workforce should sit on the boards of the largest companies, with less than a third disagreeing.

* * *

As stated, this is a UK poll.  However, an Irish poll would probably come up with similar numbers.  Given that in the UK there is a very strong and very loud lobby – comprising media outlets, commentators, and politicians – that have been attacking trade unions and employee rights for decades, one might have expected a larger cohort of anti-democratic views.  In Ireland, however, such an influential lobby is lacking.  That’s not to say that there aren’t hostile forces to trade unions and workers here; just that they don’t match the viciousness that comes out across the water.   

Irish progressives and trade unionists can take some comfort in these numbers – and could even sponsor their own survey to get a specific read on the Irish public (though such comprehensive surveys can be quite expensive).  The comfort is this:  a campaign for greater workplace democracy would have public support. 

We need to figure out how to leverage that support.  After all, its not like workplace democracy is at the top or near the top of the public policy agenda.

Therefore, one of the many tasks for 2023 is to put workplace democracy and a democratic business model at the heart of the public debate and challenge the anti-democratic vested interests that dominate the economy.  The majority of people are on our side. 

What Irish Business Really Needs

Owners, and their representatives, have been highlighting the challenges to businesses.

• A poll of 250 SMEs reported that more than two-thirds of SMEs believe there is a “possibility” they will have to shut next year, while nearly half said it was at least a “moderate risk”.
• ISME warns that the minimum wage increases next year and the plan to move to 60 percent of the median wage by 2026 will have a ‘serious economic and social cost’.
• A recruitment agency has warned that implementing the Sick Pay Act (which provides all employees of three pay-related sick days next year) will lead to an acceleration of the number of companies falling into insolvency.

Sounds grim.  But we must distinguish between claims made by owners and the actual impacts on businesses.  It may well be that business can ‘afford’ wage increases and social benefits, but owners fear constrained profits; therefore, they use the rhetorical device of ‘business can’t afford it’ or ‘this will lead to job losses’.

But what owners and their lobby groups miss is the elephant in the room; namely that Irish consumer spending lags well behind our peer group – other high-income economies.

In the year before Covid, consumer spending (private consumption) in Ireland would have had to increase by 17 percent, or €17 billion, to reach the average of our peer group.  That would mean a lot more spending in businesses throughout the economy.  The main problem for Irish business is the relatively low level of consumer spending.

There are several explanations for this poor outcome; for instance, high savings – though this wasn’t the case in Ireland prior to Covid.

Low wages or purchasing power will also impact on the levels of spending.

Irish nominal wages are slightly below average.  However, when we factor in living costs, Ireland falls to the bottom, well behind all other peer-group countries.

There are other factors.  Chief among them, which is hard to rank, is high levels of personal expenditure on essential public services.  If we are spending more on rents (and mortgage interest which is the second highest in the EU), we’re spending less on market goods and services.  Ditto for childcare, health and education.  If we are saving more for fear of unemployment, illness, family caring and retirement, then we are spending less. The weakness of our public services and social protection system is costing business a considerable amount of turnover.

So what is in the best interests of Irish business (as distinct from owners)? 

First, higher wages and greater wage equality.  Higher ages mean higher spending (all things being equal).  And higher wages for low-income groups is better yet as these groups have a higher propensity to consume.  On this behchmark, Ireland has unfortunately a lot to do.  Our levels of wage inequality are quite high.

In our peer group Ireland has the highest level of wage inequality (the higher the number, the greater the ratio).

What is needed is a living wage and a strong legislative collective bargaining framework – both at the enterprise and sectoral level – to both drive up wages and to help equalise them.

Second, an expansion of the public sector so that it can provide essential services for free or at below-market rates.  This could redirect resources into the business economy.  For instance, the Government’s proposed reduction of childcare fees by 25 percent could result in savings up to €2,000 for full-time care.  This savings is now available to spend in market sectors.  Similarly, the Government’s elimination of schoolbook costs for households with primary school children is another example.  What is needed is an identification of other services which can be provided for free or at below-market rates in the health, education, public transport sectors to list a few.

Third, a strong social security system can help free up resources for spending.  If you believe you may become unemployed, you’ll likely reduce spending since unemployment benefit payments are so low.  A pay-related unemployment benefit (e.g. at 70 percent of your wage) could help maintain a higher level of consumer spending.  This holds for sick pay and family supports (e.g. maternity/paternity benefit, parental leave, etc.) and, in particular, old-age pensions.  A strong safety net protects households and business turnover. 

* * *

What does business need?  What should employers and their representatives be calling for?

• Higher and more equal wages – facilitated by universal wage-setting structures
• Expansion of free and affordable public services
• A strong social insurance system with pay-related benefits that can help maintain consumer spending

I await the sight of business owners marching behind an IBEC or ISME banner at a cost-of-living march chanting these demands.  They would be welcomed.

Progressives Should Champion the Tax Commission Report

The Commission on Taxation and Social Welfare’s recommendations should be at the centre of a progressive programme to increase resources for a strong social state.  While there will be disagreements over this or that proposal, the broad thrust of the Commission report is progressive and substantial.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has estimated that the main recommendations could raise up to €15 billion though the range of revenue yield could vary considerably (they helpfully provide an excel sheet of their estimates here).  The Fiscal Council stated: 

‘In many cases, there are no ready-made costings available for the measures proposed by the Commission. The Commission also tends to give general guidance rather than suggested rates or other specifics.’

So these are not precise or final estimates.  However, they show the potential to transform the social state. 

Depending on how one interprets the recommendation, the estimates could be higher or lower.  But they do contain proposals which, however interpreted, could cause some controversy, even among progressives.  Let’s go through some leading recommendations.

(a)         Land and Property

There are two main proposals in this category.

• Site-Value Tax: this tax would be applied to all non-residential property and replace commercial rates.  It would raise €1.9 billion

• Local Property Tax: The Commission recommended a ‘material’ increase in the property tax.  The Fiscal Council interpreted this to mean raising the tax to one of the highest levels in the EU – nearly six-fold, raising €2.9 billion.  Whatever about the economic and fiscal efficiencies this could produce, Fiscal Council’s estimate is probably a political non-starter.  But we shouldn’t assume that a six-fold increase was what the Commission had in mind.  It could be significantly lower but still constitute a ‘material’

(b)         VAT

The Commission proposes increases in VAT rates. The Fiscal Council interpreted this as increasing goods and services that are currently zero-rated or taxed at 9 or 13.5 percent to 15 percent.  This would raise €2.5 billion.  Of course, one does not have to support increasing all such goods and services (e.g. food) and one could combine this with a reduction in the standard rate. 

Progressives would rightly point out that increasing VAT would be regressive, hitting the lowest income groups the hardest.  However, it should also be noted that many countries with much higher VAT rates have lower levels of poverty and deprivation.  That’s because they channel this revenue into income supports.  So a high VAT rate is not necessarily opposed to anti-poverty strategies.

(c)          Capital and Wealth

There are two big items here.

• Restrict or Remove the Exemption of the Sale of the Principal Private Residence from Capital Gains Tax: In short, if I sell my house (my home), any ‘profit’ I earn will not be subject to capital gains tax.  This is a major tax subsidy and has no basis in equity – not if one believes that all income, regardless of source, should be taxed.  The Fiscal Council estimates this could raise up to €1.1 billion, though estimates could vary significantly. 

• Inheritance Tax: a range of revenue-raising measures (transfer of assets subjected to capital gains tax, reducing tax-free thresholds, reduce tax reliefs) could yield up to €1.3 billion.

These measures are likely to be highly progressive.

(d)         Environmental Measures

This category includes measures which the Government is already committed to; increasing carbon tax, for instance.  Another large item in this heading is the removal of tax-based fossil-fuel subsidies over the long-term.  Given that Ireland has the second highest-level of fossil-fuel subsidies in the OECD, as noted by the Commission, means that this measure goes beyond the fiscal and cuts to the heart of strategies to achieve climate justice.

(e)         Social Insurance

It is well known that Ireland has a weak social insurance system compared other EU countries.  Driving up revenue from this source will be key to funding a strong social state. In this regard, the Commission proposals are a little disappointing.

• Currently, employees earning below €352 per week are not subject to the 4 percent employee PRSI contribution. However, once they exceed that threshold, their entire income is subject to PRSI.  The Commission recommends that a lower nominal rate (e.g. 2 percent) be applied on earnings below the €352 threshold. Yield:  €500 million.

This would impact exclusively on low-paid and part-time employees.  While there is an argument in terms of fiscal sustainability and reciprocity (employees don’t start paying PRSI until they reach €352 weekly earnings but they can access social insurance benefits upon reaching €38 per week), introducing a new contribution rate would be penal given Ireland’s low-pay status.  This recommendation can only be phased in when a new collective bargaining regime becomes operational – so that low-paid and part-time workers have the bargaining power to help maintain their net income.

The other big item is the increase in self-employed PRSI from the current 4 percent to the employers’ rate of 11.05 percent. This is in keeping with the recommendation from the Commission on Pensions.  This would yield €800 million.

However, it is disappointing that the Commission didn’t propose substantial increases in employers’ PRSI to finance a strengthening of social security measures such as in-work family supports, short-term unemployment, illness and disability supports.  To given an idea:  employers’ PRSI would have to double to reach the EU average – or about 10 percentage points.  While we may not need that level of revenue given the relatively low-level of pensioners, each percentage point increase would yield over €800 million.

(f)          Income and Corporate Tax

The Commission didn’t propose any substantial changes to income tax, apart from phasing out tax relief on private health insurance as Sláintecare is implemented.  This measure makes up over half of a relatively low level of revenue-raising measures. 

Another disappointment, however, is the Commission's failure to tackle some of the regressive and inefficient tax subsidies available to the corporate sector.  Leaving aside the vexed question of Ireland's low corporate tax rate, the Commission’s support for such subsidies are justified on neither economic or social grounds.  In this regard, NERI’s Dr. Tom McDonnell, a member of the Commission, refused to endorse the chapter on corporate subsidies, writing: 

“Chapter Nine ‘Promoting Enterprise’. . . set out a series of recommendations that endorse and support a range of very generous tax expenditures and low tax rates for enterprises and/or high earning individuals. While in some limited and special cases these types of reliefs may individually have an economic justification, they also breach the principles of vertical and horizontal equity, are highly regressive, reduce transparency, and are at odds with tax justice and solidarity principles. Individually they are problematic, albeit perhaps, in some cases, defensible. Collectively they undermine the approach taken in the rest of the Report. In my view, the overall balance between fairness and potential efficiency gains is not achieved. This imbalance is compounded by the recommended retention of other generous tax expenditures on capital transfers described elsewhere in the Report and also by a rate of employer PRSI that is low by Western European standards.”

When progressives are debating the Commission proposals, they should bear this dissent in mind.

* * *

The Commission proposals are challenging:  increases in property tax, VAT, PRSI on low-paid groups.  But there are considerable variations possible and the Fiscal Council’s estimates are only one interpretation.  However, the broad thrust of the Commission’s proposals is:

• Progressive: half of the proposals relate to capital, wealth, and property.

• Efficient: tax increases on capital, property and consumption have the least impact on economic performance.

Most of all, it puts to rest the idea that substantially increasing overall tax revenue would hit income taxes.  The Commission shows this is not the case.

There is a reason the Tánaiste was quick to rubbish the Commission’s proposals.  They would impact mostly on high-income, high-wealth households – a key constituency in Fine Gael’s political base.  It also showed that a high-tax economy is not necessarily a high income-tax economy, undermining an ill-informed criticism of a strong social state.

Progressives need to put their own ‘interpretation’ on the Commission’s recommendations, using the Fiscal Council estimates as a starting point.  But the debate will get ugly and, in many cases, downright dumb.  Fine Gael’s Cllr. John Kennedy wrote in the Irish Times:

“Throughout the report, there is a heavy emphasis on “redistribution” and in the case of the recommendation on capital acquisitions tax [inheritance tax], this sentiment borders on being an example of bona fide Marxism which is rare to see in such a commissioned report.”

Geez.

So let’s champion the Commission report, if only as a starting point.  Let’s debate the particulars.  Let’s improve on some of the recommendations.  Let’s address the omissions and shortcomings (in particular, employers’ PRSI and corporate subsidies).  But let’s not allow the report to be side-lined, gather dust, consigned to an historical waste-bin. 

It has the potential to build a strong social state in an economically efficient way.  Isn’t that what all progressives want?

It's Not Just Tech

Understandably, a lot of attention has been paid to the job losses and hiring freezes among tech companies, especially given the treatment of Twitter workers.   This is a high-profile and economically important sector.  However, we are in danger of overlooking a larger, potentially more dangerous development– the considerable reduction in employment throughout the economy in the last three months, most of which is impacting on low-paid sectors.

While there was strong growth in employee numbers up to April, between May and August, there has been a decline of 56,000 employees, or 2.4 percent.

So far the unemployment numbers has not matched this reduction.  The CSO’s monthly unemployment report shows an increase of only 4,700, or a 4.2 percent, in the numbers unemployed.  The Live Register isn’t picking up anything significant either.

However, there are a number of reasons why a decline in employee numbers doesn’t automatically translate into an increase in unemployment.  People could be leaving the labour market for caring duties, or education and training.  Others might be leaving the country – returning or leaving home.  Some might be taking up self-employed work.  In other instances, two part-time employees might leave and be replaced with a full-time worker; in this instance, the number employed falls but not the total hours worked. A fruther qualification is that recent months should be treated as provisional and subject to subsequent revision.

Whatever the explanations we should be alert to this potentially emerging trend, especially as to where it is impacting.

There are 33,000 fewer employees in the hospitality sector, followed by falls of 8,000 in the arts & entertainment, and distributive sectors.  The losses in these three low-paid sectors made up 87 percent of the entire economy-wide loss of employees.

There were no significant gains made in any sector bar the financial services sector.  There was a minor gain in the ICT sector but that is before the recent job loss announcements (which may not become evident in the data for a few months).  In short, almost all sectors suffered a loss of employees.

And as often happens, it is young people and women who take the first and significant hits.  While there was a 2.4 percent decline in employee numbers:

• Among 20–24 year-olds, the reduction was 7.7 percent
• Among 25-34 years-olds, the reduction was 3.1 percent

And women were more than twice as likely as men to suffer a reduction in employee numbers.

References to a potential recession are actually references to unemployment.  In some cases there is a limit to what a government can do in the short-term.  If there is a ‘correction’ in the tech or other multi-national dominated sectors (code word: job losses), Ministers can do little to influence what is a global process. However, governments can influence domestic economy.  And they can help mitigate the damage. 

This requires measures to ensure that demand, especially consumer demand, is maintained.  Boosting wage and income floors is one effective measure as these groups spend most of the additional income they receive; namely, the minimum wage and basic social protection rates.

Another helpful measure is to introduce a pay-related unemployment benefit.  This would help households maintain consumer spending in the short-term, rather than see their disposable income fall over a cliff, risking debt or significant cuts in their consumption.  Regarding this, the Government’s recent announcement that they will examine a pay-related element to unemployment benefit is good news. 

Unfortunately, this will take time (this should have been top of the agenda following the last recession).  In the intervening period, the Government could re-introduce the staggered payments under the pandemic unemployment payments which would provide some support.

Hopefully, this fall in employee numbers is only a blip with growth returning in the months ahead.   But we should prepare for the worst.  And the worst is that we are heading into a recession driven by job losses in both high-value and low-paid sectors.

It’s not like we haven’t been warned.

Wages are Falling - Profits are Rising

The share of wages in the economy is falling as profits are rising. While measuring wages (labour’s share) is difficult due to the distorting effects of multi-nationals, the CSO provides data for the domestic sector which is where 90 percent of work is done.

The share of wages in gross value-added (or net business income) has fallen significantly:  14 percent for the overall domestic economy and 31 percent for the domestic manufacturing sector since 2000.  In short, profits are gobbling up more and more of the net revenue that business is generating.

• In 2000, capital compensation (profits) took a 40 percent share in net business revenue.  This rose to over 48 percent by 2019.

• In 2019, the share of profits uin the domestic manufacturing sector rose from 43 percent share to over 60 percent during that same period.

One explanation could be that as economies modernise, more activity takes place in less labour -dense activities such as modern manufacturing or ICT.  However, the share of labour-dense activities has not changed over the 19-year period in the combined agriculture, distributive, hospitality and construction sectors.

One could also argue that higher profits are necessary to fund higher investment.  But with profits rising, has investment risen, too?  It doesn’t appear to be the case.  Using the CSO’s measurement of modified investment (excluding multi-national distortions) and excluding public investment we find:

• Private sector investment in 2000 was 23 percent of national income (GNI*); or16 percent if we exclude house construction

• By 2019 investment fell to 16 percent of GNI*; or 14 percent if we exclude house construction

It seems that rising profits have not resulted in higher investment though one has to be careful navigating the maze of modified measurements.

How do we compare with our peer group in the EU, other high-income economies?  Here we have to turn to net national income.  Our GNI* is not measured across European economies.  The best comparator is net national income which removes all capital depreciation.

Ireland is at the bottom of the table.  Wages (direct wages and/or employers’ social insurance) would have to rise by over 14 percent to reach our peer group average; and nearly 10 percent to reach the Eurozone average.

There is rarely a single explanation for complex economic interactions.  But the following must be a major contributing factor.

Trade union membership has fallen from 36 percent of all employees in 2000 to 25 percent in 2019 – a proportionate decline of 30 percent.  While there is some good news in recent years (it rose from a low of 23.4 percent in 2016), there is still a long way to go to return to 2000 levels.  And even further to reach the 80 percent benchmark established in the recent EU Directive on Adequate Wages.

This obviously poses a challenge for employees in the workplace – to organise through trade unions to capture a higher share of the net business revenue they generate. It poses a challenge to trade unions to reach out to those workers.  John Geary and Maria Belizon estimate that 44 percent of non-union member would vote yes to establish a union so there is an open door.

But this also poses a challenge to civil society groups who campaign on issues of poverty and social exclusion.  Can we really expect to build a strong social state in the context of capital taking more and more value-added? 

This makes trade unionists and anti-poverty activists natural allies in the struggle for higher wages (and so many other issues).  It’s time to pursue a common agenda. 

Ireland's High Living Costs

We all know that Ireland has a high level of living costs – second highest in the EU. 

Irish prices (living costs) are 40 percent above the EU average.  However, comparison with the EU average can be misleading.  High-income countries invariably have higher living costs.  In the graph above all countries in our peer group exceed the EU average.    So the better comparison is with other high-income countries and not the EU base-line.  Nonetheless, bar Denmark, we are well above price levels in those countries – even high-cost Sweden.

While there is an acknowledgement that Ireland is a high-cost country, there is less discussion over where those costs lie.

No one would be surprised that alcohol and tobacco are more than twice the price of EU levels, given our high excise levels.  Nor would many be surprised that housing and energy are nearly 90 percent higher than the EU average.  Health follows third.  At the other end, clothing and footwear, and household furnishings are at the EU average. 

While this tells us where particular categories stand in relation to the EU average, it doesn’t tell us what are the biggest contributors to Ireland’s high living costs.  For instance, communication prices – which includes both telecommunications goods and services, along with postal services – are 46 percent higher than the EU average.  But we only spend 3.4 percent of our income on communications.  So even if we were to reduce these prices to our peer group level, it wouldn’t make a significant impact on our overall living costs. 

So what are the biggest contributors to our high living costs?

Unsurprisingly, housing and energy leads the table.  Nearly a quarter of our living costs in excess of the EU average is due to this category.  Next up is alcohol & tobacco, hotels & restaurants, miscellaneous goods & services and health.  These five categories account for nearly 75 percent of our excess costs.  It is within these categories that we need to make progress if we are to lower living costs. 

It wasn't always like this - not to this degree.  Back in 1995 Irish prices were actually below the EU average.

Price rose quickly during the frist phase of the celtic tiger economy, rising to nearly 30 percent above the EU average by 2002.  It stayed at that level until a price drop following the financial crash.  But once the economy started to recover, so did prices.

There are other ways to measure the impact of high prices; in particular, from a life-cycle perspective.  For instance, young people will spend more on recreation and rents; those in their 30s and 40s will spend more on children (childcare, clothes, education-related costs); those in their 50s and 60s are likely to spend more on prescription medicine.  Capturing a life-cycle approach, combined with disposable income, would add to our understanding of the impact of living costs on households.

So why are prices high?  There are a number of potential contributory factors.  But let’s first rule out two commonly cited factors:  taxes on consumption and wages.

Our high prices can’t be put down to indirect taxation (VAT, Excise) as Ireland is below most of our peer group.  Similarly with wages – Ireland is at the bottom of the table in the market (i.e. private sector) economy.

So what might be the contributing factors?

• Periphery costs?  Given that we need to import – by sea or air – a number of our inputs or final products, this extra travel cost could add to prices.  However, we import most of our clothing and footwear – yet these prices are well below other high-income countries.
• Lack of competition?  This is the go-to explanation for many as ‘competition’ is viewed as a panacea for consumer prices and choice.  However, the restaurant sector is highly competitive (i.e. lots of enterprises) but prices remain high.  Non-alcoholic drinks are 39 percent higher than the EU average.  Can this be explained by lack of competition? 
• Lack of scale?  Economies of scale can reduce prices but our small domestic market can be a barrier to achieving this scale – hence, imports.  Are there some items higher priced because of market size or structural features?
• Lack of social spending?  Childcare fees are ultra-high, due to lack of state investment.  Ditto with GP services.  Public transport fees in Dublin are higher than in other European capitals.  How much of our high prices are due to Irish people having to pay on the private market what others throughout Europe consume through social markets – for free or at below-market rates?
• High Profits?  Are prices high because Irish business extracts higher profits?  In the domestic market sector Irish firms have a lower profit margin than most of their EU peer group countries – which is consistent with a poor performing domestic sector.  There might be exceptions in certain sectors.

We need to establish the reasons for our high prices.  We used to have a National Prices Commission.  This body monitored and regulated prices in the economy.  Businesses in many sectors would have to apply to the Commission in order to raise prices.  In this Parliamentary Question from 1978 we find the Commission giving price increase permission to products ranging from tinned strawberries to coal, cemetery charges, bread, confectionary, GP fees, energy, cheese and more.

I’m not suggesting going back to that regime.  It wouldn’t be possible (though we shouldn’t rule out temporary controls in key areas such as energy).  However, a new Prices Commission could be established to investigate the extent of high prices on key goods and services – especially in comparison with other European countries - the reasons for these high prices and what steps could be taken to lower prices would be extremely helpful in the debate.   There may be market reasons outside the control of the state.  But there may be a number of steps a government could take to tackle our high costs.  A new Price Commission could not only inform the debate, it could politicise prices and bring new light to old practices. 

Most of all, we shouldn’t be fatalistic about our high living costs.  On the other side of our inflation crisis we can intervene in a number of ways – provision of public services, taxation, import substitution, removal of barriers to competition, etc.  There is a way to bring prices under some sort of control.

It’s called politics.

Mind the Poverty Gap

The Government is digging itself or, more properly, hundreds of thousands of households, into a big hole.  By opting for significant once-off payments in Budget 2023, there is a danger of exposing people to significantly reduced living standards.  As the ESRI put it:

‘ . . . below forecast inflation increases to tax credits and welfare payments next year will mean many lower-income households will experience real terms cuts in living standards in the latter half of 2023 without a repeat of the welfare bonuses, lump-sum payments and household energy credits.’

Once the bonuses, lump-sum payments and energy credits are used up, social protection recipients will be receiving payments well below the rate of inflation.  This is a recipe for growing poverty and deprivation.

Let’s see how this works by indexing inflation and social protection payments from 2020.

Next year, basic social protection payments will rise to €220 per week (single person).  But had it been indexed to inflation, it should be €242 next year and, based on Government inflation projections, €248 in 2024.

Therefore, just to keep with inflation (i.e. no real increase), social protection payments will have to rise by €28 per week in Budget 2024.  But what chance of the Government doing that? 

[NOTE:  While basic social protection payments have increased by 8.4 percent since 2020, the standard rate tax band has increased by 13.3 percent. This gives an indication of the Government’s priority.]

Once-off payments have a role in fiscal policy in tiding households over a particular hump.  However, they need to be integrated into a medium-term framework that ensures that households at least maintain their link with inflation after the hump.  There is no evidence the Government is pursuing this strategy

Instead, once-off payments are being used – quite liberally – to ensure that permanent increases are kept at a minimum.  This will result in households’ living standards falling well behind inflation after the inflation hump.

Little Inflation Games

There is a poverty gap opening up between inflation-indexed and actual social protection payments.  There are similar interactions in secondary programmes. 

• Fuel Allowance: a once-off payment of €400 is being made to recipients of fuel allowance. However, the permanent payment is being frozen meaning a real cut of €66.

• Living Alone Allowance: another payment which get a once-off payment, worth €200.  However it, too, is being frozen resulting in a real cut of €81 for the year.   

• Child Benefit: this payment has been frozen since 2016.  Recipients will get a once-off double payment worth €140.  However, freezing the payment means a real cut of €119 for the year. 

So what the Government has given by way of once-off payments they have partially clawed back by freezing the permanent payments.  So what happens when these once-off payments have been spent?  Many household budgets will be holed the water line. 

A Progressive Framework

Currently, social protection and pension payments are increased (or not) on an ad hoc basis with short-termist fiscal and political rationalisations.  We need a framework that automatically indexes payments against a relevant economic indicator.  There are two questions:

First, what is the level of adequacy?  The Minimum Essential Standard of Living produced by the Vincentians shows that this year €249 per week is necessary for a single person to reach that standard, excluding housing costs.  The basic social protection payment this year is €208.

Save for a pensioner couple (both 66 years or more), all other categories are well below the minimum essential standard of living.

Second, what should social protection payments be indexed against in the future once adequacy has been achieved?  There are three options:

• Inflation
• Average Wages
• National Income (GNI*) per capita

It should be noted that, over the long-term, wages and national income per capita outstrip inflation.  If social protection payments were indexed to the latter, it would mean no real increase while the living standards for those on fixed incomes would fall behind the rest of society, widening inequality.

Such a framework would need to be flexible and be linked to housing payments.  But let’s be clear – it is unlikely that this Government has an interest in developing such a framework.

Fortunately, we have a considerable level of expertise and skills in the area of social policy.  Civil society activists, including trade unionists, should come together to establish a People’s, or Civll Society Commission to deal with just this issue:  what is the framework to achieve adequacy in social protection payments and what should these payments be linked to?  This would lead to a more rational system where poverty can be significantly reduced if not eliminated altogether.

And the first step is to show how we can close the poverty gap between payments and inflation. 

Recession Hangs Over Budget 2023

There were two major projections from the government on budget day that have not yet entered the public debate. 

First, the economy is projected to flat-line next year.  The government projects 0.4 percent growth in real GNI*.  This is the preferred measurement for assessing economic activity in the state.  0.4 percent is barely any growth at all and is only just above the recession zone.  The Finance Minister omitted this in his speech, instead focusing on the lesser known ‘modified domestic demand’:

‘ . . . my department has revised down its forecast for Modified Domestic Demand – the most appropriate measure of our domestic economy – to 1¼ per cent for next year.’

This is incorrect.  The most appropriate measure is GNI*. Referencing this, though, might have raised awkward questions.

We can get a sense of the deterioration in government projections by reviewing the Department of Finances’ revisions of the components of economic growth – from April (Stability Programme Update) to September (the budget).

The revisions downwards are quite significant, especially given that they occurred within five months.

• Consumer spending projection has been cut in half
• Modified investment (which factors out multinational distortions) has been revised downwards by nearly 2/3.
• GNI* has been slashed to nearly zero.

While employment growth is expected to moderate at 1.2 percent (down from a projected 2.1 percent in back in April), unemployment has not been revised upwards.

The government projects all this to be temporary.  GNI* and consumer spending is expected to bounce back in 2024, though investment will remain relatively muted.   Hopefully, this is the case.  But with such uncertainty in international markets it is difficult to project beyond a year. 

The second piece of bad news which hasn’t received enough attention is the inflation projection for next year.

In 2022 the government is projecting an inflation rate of 8.5 percent.  Next year it will remain high at 7.1 percent.  This is well above other estimates from the Central Bank, ESRI and NERI who projected inflation for next year at between 4 and 4.5 percent.  And it is well above what the government was projecting six months ago. 

This means that over this year and next inflation will run at 16.2 percent.  Incomes will have to rise by this amount over 2022 and 2023 just to stand still.  This wasn’t expected.

Continued high inflation will depress consumer spending which, in turn will impact on investment (businesses are reluctant to invest if consumer spending isn’t sufficient to produce a return on their investment).  The Government is projecting that inflation increases will moderate by 2024, rising by only 2.4 percent with energy prices rising be even less. But this should be treated with caution as no one knows how this current crisis will impact on the medium term.

So we have an economy flirting with recession within a high inflation environment.  The government is banking on the assumption that social transfers, especially the once-off component, will serve not only to protect living standards but also bolster consumer spending.  It is further hoping that their subsidies to the business sector will deter further price rises and maintain employment.

Let’s hope it comes right.  For if the Irish economy falls into a slump with high inflation rates (what is popularly known as stagflation) it will become extremely difficult to dig ourselves out.

A first step is to start highlighting all this in the public debate.  It would be bad enough to fall into recession.  But to pretend that the prospect doesn’t exist would be just as bad.

 

 

How Much Would Price Controls Cost

[The following post is a big number heavy – and others may have better estimates)

John Fitzgerald is pessimistic:

‘ . . these [energy’ price increases will probably drive the Irish economy, as well as the EU’s, into recession . . . We are looking at a possible 5 per cent loss of income and output, which could be enough to cause the rapidly growing Irish economy to reverse engines, with a serious negative impact on employment.’

I hope he’s wrong.  I fear he may not be.

The EU Commission recent proposals come up short of controlling energy prices.  At best, they recognise the profiteering occurring in some sectors of the energy market.  The thrust of their proposals is to levy windfall profit taxes in order to boost social transfers. 

The issue of energy price controls has gained some momentum since I first raised this last year.  Such price controls should be seen, for the time being, as temporary, tactical and forensic.  But even then, it will come at a price.  With the help of Eurostat and the CSO let’s do some relatively crude back-of-the-envelope estimates.

• In 2021, households spent €3.1 billion on electricity, gas and other domestic fuels (home heating oil, solid fuels, etc.). If we assume energy inflation running at 48.6 percent in the last year (to August), households will be spending on €4.6 billion this year. 

• In 2019, the business sector spent €4.7 billion. However, that includes €1.1 billion consumed by the power generation sector.  So that leaves €3.6 billion spent on energy inputs by non-utility businesses.  With energy inflation running at 62.5 percent over the three years we could expect business spend to rise by €2.2 billion.  This would mean the business sector could spend €5.8 billion on energy this year.

So in 2022 we could expect a total economic spend of €10.4 billion on energy.  However, the risk is to the upside with cost variations depending on the particular energy fuel being used.

Temporary and Tactical

A temporary, tactical approach would see price controls operating over the winter months.  That is the immediate challenge to ensure that people can stay warm at affordable rates, and businesses continue to operate.  The CSO shows that 69 percent of residential gas consumption occurred between October to March in 2021 – essentially quarter four and quarter one. Business consumption was 51 percent during this period.  I can’t find seasonal consumption patterns for electricity but we’ll assume it mirrors gas.

Therefore, spending over the six autumn / winter months is estimated to be €6.1 billion:  €3.2 billion for households and €2.9 billion for businesses.

Let’s look at the reduction in prices if we rolled back prices to August 2021.

Rolling back prices to August 2021 would result in a 33 percent reduction in prices, varying between 28 percent (electricity) and 42 percent (home heating oil).  It should be noted that rolling back prices to August 2021 brings us close to pre-pandemic levels. 

In terms of cost over the winter months (adding an additional 10 percent to help reduce upside risks) we could see the state spending

• For households: €1.2 billion
• For businesses: €1.1 billion
• Total cost: €2.3 billion

€2.3 billion to roll back prices to August 2021 levels for six months:  this is a significant cost. 

Forensic

Fortunately, this cost can be reduced through a number of targeting mechanisms. High-income, high-consumers don’t need the cut and are probably in a better position to reduce consumption.  A subsidised cut could be delivered through a tiered-tariff imposed by the Regulator over the six months:

• Standing Charge: the most regressive component of an inevitably regressive cost.  This could be eliminated during the target period.

• Tiered Tariff: just as with tax rates, energy charges could be reduced for the first 2,000 kWh (average household consumption is 4,400 kWh), with graduated bands above that. 

In this way, price controls could be directed toward low-average income households.

For businesses, a similar targeting could occur for energy-intensive firms.  For instance, the manufacturing sector makes up 33 percent of all business spend.  Further, we could also exclude data centres from subsidised price cuts.

Targeting the subsidised price cuts could reduce the total cost.  And it should be noted that the state would also save money – 15 percent of business spend comes from the public administration, health and education sectors.  This would save money for the Exchequer. 

Recouping the Cost

• A windfall profits tax should be levied. The Finance Minister recently told Ged Nash, TD, that raising the corporate tax rate on energy companies from 12.5 percent to 50 percent would yield €271 million.

• The price cap could be introduced on a cost-plus basis, acknowledging that most of the costs originate from outside the state (importing fossil-fuels). This would temporarily squeeze profit margins for companies. 

• Some of the cost could be returned to the state. For instance, a portion of the subsidised cost to business could be repaid over a ten-year period, linked to profitability.  A bank levy-type charge on energy companies could be introduced but one would have to look out for companies passing this on to the consumer.

• Costs could be further reduced through temporarily reduced network charges, putting the cost on public utilities.

All of the above would lead to tariffs being set by the Regulator.  For this emergency period, there would be limited competition between energy retail firm with profit levels frozen or rolled back to pre-covid levels on a cost-plus basis. 

This would require a sophisticated price control regime.  However, the benefits would be considerable. 

• For households, costs would be reduced before the Government’s energy-subsidy transfers. This could reduce the costs of transfers.  Further, it would mean relief for hard-to-target households who are just above social protection thresholds but wouldn’t benefit from tax cuts.

• For businesses, costs would be reduced in two ways: the direct cost of purchasing energy, and the reduced input costs where energy plays a significant role.  This is about reducing energy costs throughout the supply chains. 

The reduction in business costs could allow for higher wages – especially for low-average income groups (those with a high propensity to spend).  This would drive consumer spending and increase net business revenue.  The alternative would see the business sector facing rising costs and falling demand due to wage restraints. This would be a recipe for John Fitzgerald’s recession.

Temporary, tactical and forensic price controls can help us get through a potentially grim winter.  The issue of unwinding price controls following this period will be challenging.  However, we may find that having established a price control infrastructure (and improving it as it goes along), we may keep it.  Not only because it may be necessary.

But because we need to start treating energy a public good.

Ban SUVs

No one doubts we need to act urgently if we are to avoid climate armageddon.  While the debate has focused on sectoral targets, especially agriculture, we need to move to concrete proposals and implementation. Quickly.

While much of the debate takes place at a high level – off-shore wind, data centres, electric cars, retrofitting (with targets that are highly challenging) – moving towards climat ae justice will take a myriad of small steps.  And a key issue is whether we use tax incentives or regulation to help us along the way. 

Let’s look at one proposal in the area of transportation – banning Sports Utility Vehicles.  This is not a substitute for radical action to extend public transport or transition to electric vehicles.  However, it is one of a number of small steps that can help reduce greenhouse emissions.

Sports Utility Vehicles are, in climate terms, highly damaging.  The International Energy Agency made a finding that stunned even its own researchers.

‘SUVs were the second largest cause of the global rise in carbon dioxide emissions over the past decade, eclipsing all shipping, aviation, heavy industry and even trucks . . . ‘

If all SUV drivers banded together to form their own country, they would rank as the seventh largest emitter in the world.  According to Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA:

‘The global rise of SUVs is challenging efforts to reduce emissions.’

Sebastian Castellanos, a researcher at the New Urban Mobility Alliance, stated:

‘To avert the worst of the climate catastrophe, the transport sector needs to be completely decarbonized . . . With the explosion in SUV sales, we are moving even farther away from our goal of decarbonizing the sector.’

Again, the New Scientist reports: 

‘The good news is that more people bought electric cars in 2020. The bad news is that SUVs continued to grow in popularity, too. The fall in oil consumption due to the first trend was completely cancelled out by the second, say Laura Cozzi and Apostolos Petropoulos at the International Energy Agency in France.  The growing popularity of SUVs is making it even harder to cut carbon dioxide emissions and meet climate goals. “Policy-makers need to find ways to persuade consumers to choose smaller and more efficient cars,” says Petropoulos.'

It should be noted that estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from SUVs do not factor in the manufacturing carbon cost.  As SUVs are heavier, their emissions would be higher still. 

It should be a no-brainer that we have to reduce the number of SUVs on the roads.  After all, there are ‘substitution’ goods; that is, there are less-damaging cars that can be purchased – including electric vehicles, though Jason Power warns that electric SUVs remain a bad idea. 

However, SUVs are highly popular.  Half of all new car purchases in the US are SUVs while they make up one-in-three purchases in the US.  Ireland is part of this trend.  Hannah Daly and Vera O'Riordan of UCC found that:

‘SUVs are also favoured by city-dwellers as much as country folk: nearly 19,000 were sold in Dublin last year, nearly half of new cars registered in that county.’

They put the issue in stark terms:

‘Ireland must rapidly reduce fossil fuel consumption to meet climate obligations. As one of the many changes needed, the prevalence of heavy, fuel-hungry SUVs on Irish roads should end. But instead, SUV sales are growing rapidly: 55,000 were sold in 2021 (nearly 55% of all new cars). By contrast, only 8,600 fully electric vehicles were sold that year. SUVs' greater weight and height mean that they emit around 20% more carbon dioxide than medium-sized cars, and far more than electric vehicles.’

Governments will be reluctant to interfere with people’s choice of cars, especially such a large cohort of people.  However, when we compare the challenge of reducing SUVs with other challenges – transitioning to renewables, retrofitting hundreds of thousands of buildings, expanding public transport – it is pretty small scale.

One issue is how we implement this reduction.  The usual route is through tax incentives; namely, increasing the tax on SUVs.  The logic of this is that the additional tax will direct purchases to cheaper and less environmentally damaging vehicles.  However, this still results in high income groups capable and willing to pay the additional tax, being able to continue engaging in environmentally damaging transport.  In short, they can buy their way out of responsible consumption.  And this impacts all of us.

A more direct and egalitarian policy approach would be to simply ban them.  This means that, regardless of one’s income, people will be required to purchase other, less carbon dioxide-intense vehicles.  Whatever about the issue of commercial vehicles - using SUVs for work purposes - the removal of fossil-fuel SUVs from our roads would help in decarbonisation. 

In the overall, this should not be a difficult issue but it requires a government intent on a robust strategy of climate justice and willing to win people over to that strategy.  This is just one small rung on the sustainability ladder that we will have to climb if we are serious about climate change and repair.

Now, who’s up for banning private jets?

Raise the Income Floors, Lower the Price Ceilings

With the Exchequer awash with revenue (much of it potentially unsustainable corporate tax revenue) there is no shortage of proposals for the upcoming ‘cost-of-living’ budget.  Social protection increases, tax cuts, once-off subsidies, public service supports – there’s something for everyone in the audience. So how do we decide what is the most economically efficient and socially equitable within all this noise? 

We can start with two principles:  first, raise the income floor; and second, lower the price ceiling. 

Income Floors

Raising the income floor directs resources to predominantly low-income groups.  This can be done in two ways: 

• Increase social protection payments (substantially)
• Increase the national minimum wage (substantially)

Not only is this socially equitable, it is efficient.  Lower income groups have a very high propensity to spend; that is, they spend most of any additional income they receive.  Given that one of the biggest recessionary threats is a reduction in consumer spending and, so, investment – increasing the income floor would help bolster consumption and business revenue. 

One flying kite doing the rounds is a €15 weekly increase in social protection payments, which  would cost €1.1 billion – though the Irish Times reports that this proposal is fading.   Even so, if the goal is to protect those on fixed incomes, this proposal would come up short. 

• The Central bank estimates inflation to be 12.2 percent in 2022 and 2023.

• A €15 weekly increase next year combined with the €5 increase this year would only raise social protection rates by 9.9 percent.

There’s also the finding by the CSO that inflation hits low-income groups harder than those higher up the income scale.

While the national headline rate was 6.7 percent, for the lowest income deciles inflation was higher than 7 percent while for the highest income deciles inflation was below the headline rate. 

 At a minimum, social protection rates should increase by €20 per week if protecting people’s living standards is the goal.  At that level, with additional supports (fuel allowance, electricity rebates), we could be successful in protecting those on fixed incomes.

A substantial minimum wage increase is also needed to increase the earnings floor.  The CSO’s latest data shows there were nearly 125,000 on the minimum wage.  However, increases in the minimum wage impact more than just those on the wage floor.  It affects all those being lifted up to the new wage.  And it impacts on people above the new rate as the increase pushes up wages.  Given that there are over 400,000 who are officially categorised as low-paid, a significant increase would directly and indirectly impact on a sizeable proportion.

Apart from protecting low-paid employees against inflation, a minimum wage increase would have other benefits.  First, it increases tax revenue which the Government can redirect into further social protection or public service supports.  Secondly, it would help bolster consumer demand.  The National Competitiveness and Productivity Council has warned of the danger to domestic SMEs from falling consumer spending as a result of uncertainty over inflation.  As low-income earners spend nearly all the additional income, this would end up being spent (ditto for social protection increases).  

These two measures – substantial increases in social protection rates and the minimum wage – could protect low-income groups from inflation, support the domestic economy, and help the Government ensure that targeted measures are not eaten up by price increases.

Lowering the Price Ceiling

Lowering price ceilings could come via energy price regulation.  This could, at the very least, limit the damage of any upward pressure on, especially, gas prices.  I’ve discussed this here and here.  There are a number of ways could this be done, apart from freezing prices through maximum price orders:

• Substantially reduce standing charges – they are effectively a flat-rate tax on energy consumption, totally detached from the amount of energy used. A single pensioner suffering energy poverty pays the same standing charge as a high-income household.

• Introduce temporary social tariffs – ensure that low-average income households pay no more than 5 percent of their income on energy. This would, of necessity, be a means-tested scheme.

• Require all energy suppliers to extend their lowest tariff to all customers.

Introducing a windfall profit tax would be a second-best option.  The Finance Minister recently told Ged Nash, TD, that raising the corporate tax rate on energy companies from 12.5 percent to 50 percent would yield €271 million.  That’s a decent enough haul.  However, it implies profits of over half-a-billion Euro.  Wouldn’t it be better just to require energy companies to reduce prices by that amount for a temporary period?  Investment in green alternatives could be protected by direct investment subsidies.

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has weighed in on the debate in the UK. 

‘ . . the government should pause any further increase in the cap; assess the actual costs of the energy supplies being sold to consumers; and, after reviewing the profit margins, and examining how to make standing charges and social tariffs more progressive, negotiate separate company agreements to keep prices down. And if the companies cannot meet these new requirements, we should consider all the options we used with the banks in 2009: guaranteed loans, equity financing and, if this fails, as a last resort, operate their essential services from the public sector until the crisis is over.’

Regulate and, where necessary, nationalise.  That is a serious progressive perspective.

* * *

Once these two principles have been established in policy, then we can assess the range of further options to assist households and businesses based on economic efficiency and social equity.   There is, quite naturally, demands to assist people and enterprises throughout the economy.  The Government will need to prioritise the most effective policies while minimising the inefficient, the inequitable. 

Raising the income floor and lowering the energy price ceiling is the foundation.

Time to Introduce Price Controls on Energy

It is beyond time to start implementing price controls on energy products.  We have a few months left before the winter and another big price increase.  To those who claim that ‘price controls don’t work’, look at France.

France has one of the lowest inflation rates in Europe:  5.8 percent annually up to May, compared to an EU average of 8.8 percent and an Irish rate of 8.3 percent.  A big explanation for this is a series of energy price controls they have introduced – on both electricity and gas.

France has been putting pressure on the EDF, the main electricity supplier (which is owned by the State) to keep price increases close to production costs.  In April they imposed a 4% price increase cap while freezing gas prices since November last year.  These benefit a high proportion of households and business.

Variations in pricing are not wholly down to price controls.  Other measures that reduce costs may also be at play (e.g. VAT reductions).  But price controls have played a key role.

• France is not the only country to intervene in the pricing of energy products. The OECD charts the range of measures that countries are taking.  These include price support measures:  price controls, reduced electricity charges and network fees, VAT and excise tax reductions, and compensation to distributors for selling energy products at reduced prices.
• Malta has mandated the state-owned provider to freeze prices at their 2014 level which means a 0 percent increase in electricity and gas prices over the last year. They compensate the provider for the losses the price cap has brought about.
• Portugal and Spain are introducing electricity caps which are estimated to cut electricity prices by 50 percent to about 40 percent of the population.
• In Hungary, electricity prices fell by 21 percent with gas prices falling by 17 percent owing to the introduction of price caps.

A number of other countries have intervened in the pricing of energy products through various mechanisms.   

In Ireland, there has been tentative discussions regarding price controls or caps.  Back in September of last year the Tánaiste addressed this issue:

‘Maximum price orders will be considered by Government to halt galloping gas and electricity costs, the Tánaiste has told the Dáil . . . Mr Varadkar said: “We’re not going to rule out using maximum price orders.” ‘

What is the follow-up to that ‘consideration’?  What did the Government conclude?  What study did they undertake?  Have they published it?  Will they publish their findings?

Apparently, the Minister for Finance has been looking into excess profits in the energy sector. 

‘I am aware that the European Commission has confirmed that EU member states can consider imposing temporary tax measures on windfall profits of energy providers and use the revenue generated to provide consumers with relief from high prices. Officials in my Department and the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications are evaluating the potential for such a proposal.’

Of course, it would be far better to remove excess or windfall profits through price regulation rather than taxing it.  A tax allows companies to retain a large portion of the profit.

There are a number of forms price regulation could take. 

• The simplest way would be to introduce a price cap. However, this must be finely calculated; otherwise, retailers and generators could exit the market (though this threat can by over-played at times). 
• Reducing prices to the average profit margin prior to the crisis would allow for companies to maintain a profit but ensure that no one is benefitting beyond the historical norm.
• Reducing prices to the cost of production would mean that companies would have to temporarily forgo profits but, again, care must be taken that companies don’t suspend investment or be prevented from increasing employee wages.
• The price of electricity and gas could be standardised for the duration of this emergency (some companies offer the same product – electricity or gas - at price differentials of €400 per year, depending on the 'plan’).
• The Regulator could draw up a tariff schedule that benefits low-users of energy. For instance, the average household consumes 4,200 kWh per year of electricity.  Prices on the first 25 percent (or 1,000 kWh) consumed could be significantly reduced.  If consumption is related to income, this could benefit lower-income households.

Other measures could include reducing for a period transmission and distribution tariffs to the network, ensuring the savings is passed on to the consumer. 

If the state were to intervene in market pricing, it would need to be clear about its objectives.  It is not, in the long term, about suppressing fossil-fuel energy prices.   These prices will rise given the transition to renewable energy sources.  The objective is to smooth out spikes to provide certainty to consumers and protect them from high prices during periods of high demand. It is further intended to ensure that no one profiteers selling a public good. 

The first step is to acknowledge the principle that energy prices should be regulated (in Slovenia they are debating price controls on petrol); that energy is a public good, vital to the functioning of a productive economy and household welfare.

Once we have accepted this common-sense proposition, we can figure out the best way to achieve that.

And the great thing is that we don’t need an emergency budget to introduce price regulation.  So what’s the hold up? 

The Inflation Dividend

Public finances are, so far, holding up reasonably well.  Tax revenues are rising on the back of economic activity and higher prices.  For instance, as prices rise, so do indirect taxes.  This has been coupled with reduced expenditure – driven mainly by the withdrawal of pandemic supports and the continued fall in unemployment.

All this makes for an ‘inflation dividend’ – the unanticipated upturn in the Exchequer’s balance sheet. 

In April, the Government estimated that it would run a deficit of €1.9 billion this year.  The recent ESRI quarterly commentary now estimates the Government will actually have a €1.6 billion surplus.  Next year, the think tank estimates a surplus of €3.2 billion – nearly three times what the Government estimated.  There is also the Covid contingency fund which the government set up to meet potential ongoing pandemic costs.  This €4 billion fund has not been exhausted. 

We should be cautious about any estimate.  Such is the volatility in the economy and the potential for further disruptions, projections can swing significantly even within a few weeks.  However, whatever about the numbers, it is reasonable to conclude that public finances are moving into surplus much sooner than expected.

So what do we do with this extra money?  We could pay down debt but our debt levels are already average by Eurozone standards and interest rate increases won’t really start impacting the Government’s balance sheet until the end of the decade.

We could set up a rainy-day fund, especially given our fiscal over-reliance on a handful of multi-nationals.  However, we already have a rainy-day fund – in the form of cash balances held by the Government.  While much of this cash is used as a buffer for cash-flow purposes, we held €27 billion at the beginning of this year.   

Given the debilitating impact on households and businesses from the current inflation crisis, the €1.6 billion projected surplus should be treated as a ‘dividend’, to be paid out in anti-inflation measures.  That’s the budget for relief measures. 

This doesn’t tell us what are the most efficient and socially equitable measures to take but it gives us a price tag:

• Increased social transfers, including significant increases in the Working Family Payment thresholds. The Back-to-School Allowance could be extended to all households.  There could be a significant increase in prescription medicine subsidies, coupled with drug price controls.

• Resources to reduce the cost of public services would also play a role in this dividend. A reduction in public transport fares (why not try, even on a pilot basis, the German example where €9 per month gets you free access to all public transport), and a 50 percent cut in childcare fees (cheaper than you think) would be just two of many measures.

This dividend should be seen as additional to measures the Government would have implemented regardless of the crisis:  social protection and public service increases, inflation-indexing tax thresholds, public sector pay, etc.

For those who worry about the impact of a €1.6 billion anti-inflation package on public finances, they needn’t.  The €1.6 billion is just the gross cost.  Every expenditure drives up tax revenue.  For instance, an increase in social transfers increases income tax revenue (social insurance benefits are taxable) while boosting consumption taxes.  If we reduce childcare fees that money doesn’t go into a black hole.  Households will spend most of it in the rest of the economy, again driving tax revenue.  The cost to the Exchequer of a €1.6 anti-inflation package will, in net terms, be considerably less.

But we need a more invigorated debate on the current crisis.  It needs to go beyond just cash transfers, though that is an important element.  The role of wages, price controls and the transformation of public services into universal basic services should be part of any sophisticated, multi-prong and medium-term strategy. 

And that should start immediately and not wait for the October budget.

Modelling a New Collective Bargaining Framework

Here is a link to my presentation to the Nevin Economic Reserch Institute Labour Market Conference which was held on Tuesday, June 14th: Modelling a New Collective Bargaining Framework.

 

It argues for a new collective bargaining framework that can vindicate employees' right to collective bargaining. Using international examples it covers firm-level and sectoral collective bargaining proposals, along with Right to Organise measures. It can hopefully be used as a basis for a wider discussion among trade unionists and progressives regarding the democratic reforms needed to ensure employees have access to collective bargaining.

 

Don’t Lower Wage Expectations. Raise Them!

Ibec’s Danny McCoy stated:

‘The most catastrophic mistake would be to try to index wage increases to price increases.’

Why?  I suppose it has something to do with that wage-price spiral notion – the idea that wage increases to protect people from inflation will drive further inflation. There’s not much evidence for this, though.  Recently, a senior economist at the IMF dismissed the idea. 

‘A leading economist from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has dismissed concerns that wage increases to help workers deal with rising living costs will spark a wage-price spiral.  Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director at the IMF, said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday that it is possible that wages could rise without driving inflation higher, with company profits declining instead.’

Oh, so maybe it’s not about wages and prices at all.  Maybe its about profits.  That’s what Aiden Regan thinks.  Writing in the Business Post, Aiden explains.

‘. . . wages are not responsible for price increases today.  On the contrary: increased corporate profits are.  Big corporations with pricing power are taking advantage of supply chain bottlenecks and increasing prices over and above their labour and non-wage costs.  This corporate profiteering coupled with rising energy prices, is what’s mostly responsible for the price increases that have occurred in the post-pandemic recovery period.’

In the US, the Economic Policy Institute estimates that in the six quarters to the end of 2021, profits contributed 54 percent to unit price increases with non-labour costs contributing 38 percent.  Unit labour costs contributed only 8 percent.  Fortune, the business publication, headlined a recent article:

‘U.S. companies post their biggest profit growth in decades by jacking up prices during the pandemic’.

Is this happening here?  We don’t know. Irish data is not reliable due to multi-national accounting distortions (i.e. tax haven-type activities).  The data coming from our peer group in the EU (other high-income countries) can give us a better read. 

In the two years during the pandemic, profits in non-financial companies grew at nearly twice the rate as wages.  This was a turnaround from the preceding two years – 2017-2019 – when wage growth outstripped profits.   It is likely that Irish profit growth mirrors the wider European trend, if not exceeding it, given the weakness in Irish labour’s bargaining power. 

It certainly does appear that energy companies are benefitting.  Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe stated that officials in his department ‘are evaluating the potential for such a proposal’ – that is, an excess profits tax.   A 10 per cent tax would generate €60 million, based on energy providers' 2020 tax returns. This implies that energy companies have pulled in €600 million in excess profits.  It would be interesting to make similar investigations throughout sectors where prices are also rising significantly.

There is, though, considerable pessimism regarding the possibility of obtaining wage increases to help off-set the impact of inflation.  The Central Bank recently published the results of a survey of people’s wage expectations over the next year.

Slightly over half expect wages to stay about the same.  While 31 percent expect a slight increase in earnings (with 2 percent expecting a lot) 14 percent expect a fall.  This pessimism is growing.  The same survey showed that only two months previously, in February, only 7.7 percent expected a decrease.

Wage falls and effective wage freezes will only exacerbate consumer spending in a high inflation environment.  And the National Competitiveness and Productivity Council warned about this impact on consumer spending. 

“Domestically focused SMEs can also be negatively impacted by lower discretionary consumer spending, as Irish individuals are forced to allocate more of their household budget to the essential goods and services whose prices have risen.”

So, pessimistic wage expectations and negative impacts arising from such pessimism.  Mark Paul makes some provocative comments: 

“Policymakers need to start coming up with better answers for workers than lumping responsibility on to their shoulders for a phenomenon — inflation — of which they are more victims than perpetrators . . . Some major corporate entities are pushing through price increases but also promising shareholders they will resume or increase dividends. It is increasingly difficult to preach pay restraint to workers when many captains of industry, and the investors for whom they work, remain so well paid . . . There is little evidence so far of any wage-price spirals in Ireland or anywhere in Europe. But there is plenty of evidence that profitable employers will have to get real on pay.”

So what should be the response?  Raise wage expectations.  Act on those expectations.  Join a union.  Make pay demands.  Wage increases will be good for the economy. 

The Government could kick start this by doing two things:  capping energy prices and providing a supplemental increase in the national minimum wage (France and Belgium did this a few months ago).  This would show the Government is attempting to get to grips with prices and living standards.

It’s not the only things they should do.  But it would be a good start.