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August 05, 2010



A contribution would be the teachers on temporary contracts who were let at the end of the school year.


And nurses on temporary contracts. And anyone else on a public sector temporary contract.

How will the mainstream media spin this one?


Jesus. We are going to lose hundreds of thousands of people to emigration.Again.

Michael Taft

Tomboktu - good point, I missed that. However, I would just point out that the CSO's seasonality index would have (should have) factored that in. I hear Minister O'Cuiv assuring all of us that the Register will fall substantially in September when 'everyone' returns to work. Hmmm. Last year, on a seasonal basis, the Live Register actually increased - by over 3,000. So, we'll see what green shoots the September figures give us.

CMK - how will the mainstream spin that? My own guess is that they will have no problem. After all, once you spin 'we're on the road to recovery', you can spin anything.

Barry - oh, yes. Oh, yes, yes.


They certainly aren't daring to come out and say we're looking at fourteen years of this. Ain't that a surprise?

Conor McCabe

I've been looking at the quarterly household survey from 2008 to 2010Q1 and the upward trend in short-hours (1 to 29 hrs a week) tapered off at the end in 2009 and was flat until March. Very tentative, but we know that businesses were putting people on short hours rather than laying them off, and what appears to have been going on is that those businesses that were struggling have a)now collapsed, b) started laying off people in greater numbers.

I'm going to chart it tonight and put it up, but I think it's a factor, and I have to say, if true, a very, very sad one, as every one of those business was hanging on by a thread for months but the sustained deflationary attack by Fianna Fail just finished them off. These were businesses which were still alive, but Fianna Fail killed them.

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