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October 16, 2018


Fact Checker

A very good spot Michael.

Social payments are expected to grow by only 0.5% pa in nominal terms post-2020, so in effect real decreases.

Unemployment is expected to have fallen to 5% by then, and not to fall further. So there are no savings from reduced working age payments.

Meanwhile there are strong demographic pressures, with the over-65 population growing 3% per annum and the over-85 population growing 5% per annum.

Regarding your metric, real expenditure per capita is probably no worse a benchmark than anything else, particularly with what has happened to GDP/GNI.

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