The Far Right’s Problem with Immigration Facts

The far Right and their allies may not yet be a significant political force in Ireland but they are proliferating on a number of internet platforms, with the constant threat this could spill out into the mainstream debate.  Working under the cover of extremist hashtags (e.g. New World Order, George Soros, Cultural Marxist, Globalist, One World Government and variations on these and similar themes) one of their weapons is to distort data to give their claims some credence.

Claims that Ireland has a high level of non-citizens, that we are being inundated with asylum-seekers, that immigrants come here to live off our ‘generous’ social welfare payments dominate the far Right discourse.  One might be tempted to ignore them since to date, they are a tiny force.  But, as we have seen with the suspected arson attacks on proposed direct provision centres in Moville and Rooskey, their claims can feed into dangerous results.  So let’s go through their assertions.

Non-Citizens in Ireland and the EU

Ireland has a higher proportion of non-citizens than the EU high-income countries average – with nearly one-in-eight Irish residents being citizens of another country.  But when we look under the hood, we find something interesting about the composition of Irish non-citizens.

Nearly one-in-five of non-citizens living in Ireland are UK citizens.  In the EU high-income countries, UK citizens make up less than 2.5 percent.  This is not surprising.  Nor is the level of non-citizens from other English-speaking countries.

US, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand citizens make up twice the proportion of non-citizens living in Ireland as compared to other high-income EU countries.  There is no data for France and the UK across these groups – though US citizens made up 2.5 percent of all non-citizens living in the UK; the comparable figure for Ireland is 2.2 percent.

Maybe the Far Right is concerned about all those English, Scots, Welsh and even Northern Irish (Eurostat categorises them as non-citizens) living here.  Or similarly with Yanks, Aussies, etc.  I suspect, however, that what agitates the Far Right are all those ‘others’ - Asians, Africans, South Americans and people from the Middle East.

These are small numbers.  And when the Irish Far Right gets in their ‘Islamophobia’ mode they are getting worked up over really small numbers.  Of course, they might reply the situation is ‘getting worse’.  Translation: there are more and more of these folk pouring in here, tsunami-like.

But no, there is almost no growth in the population of these non-citizen groups in Ireland. 

Immigrants and the Labour Market

Another feature of the Far Right discourse is that immigrants come here to ‘live off the state’ (like senior creditors of banks, I suppose).  So let’s examine the unemployment rates among non-citizens  in the high-income EU countries.  The labour market gives us a sense of alleged ‘sponging’.  It is also an indicator of integration – work being that social space where people from everywhere come together to contribute to the economy and society.

The following looks at the unemployment rate among citizens and non-citizens and the resulting ratio. Unfortunately, this database doesn’t break down unemployment by the countries of non-citizens.  The higher the ratio, the greater unemployment is among the non-citizen group; the lower the ratio the higher the level of integration.

Let’s walk through this table.  The unemployment rate here among Irish citizens was 6.6 percent in 2017; among non-EU citizens it was 8.9 percent.  This results in a ratio of 1.3.  This is the best result among the high-income EU countries.  Other countries are struggling to integrate non EU-citizens into their labour markets.  For instance, in Sweden, while unemployment among Swedish citizens was 5 percent, among non-EU citizens it was a staggering 29 percent – a ratio of 5.4.  Germany, Austria and Belgium are similarly struggling – though it should be pointed out that over the recent past these countries welcomed a large number of people fleeing wars and deprivation.  It will take time to integrate these people into the domestic labour market.

The point here is that the claims that people come here to sponge off the state are ill-founded.  We have one of the best records of integrating non-EU citizens into our labour market.

Asylum Seekers

A third trope of the Far Right is that we are being overrun with asylum-seekers or, as some would have it, ‘bogus’ asylum-seekers.  Again, the data doesn’t bear this out.

Along with the UK (which puts their Brexit/immigration debate into some context), Ireland had the lowest level of asylum applications in the period between 2015 and 2017 - the years of the European migrant crisis.  Over the three-year period there were 8,400 asylum applications in Ireland.  If the applications were at the high-income EU average, this would have meant 39,000 (if at the level of table-topper Sweden, it would have been 96,000). 

And lest some would argue that we have a lax regime, that anyone who applies for asylum is granted it, the fact is that Ireland is rather tough.

Only 39 percent of asylum applications are met with a positive decision here. The average for high-income countries is 55 percent.

* * *

Let’s summarise:

• Ireland has a relatively high level of non-citizens in its population. But this is down to the high level of UK citizens and citizens from other English-speaking countries (US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand).
• Ireland has significantly fewer non-citizens from outside the English-speaking world than high-income EU countries.
• The proportion of non-citizens has remained stable over the last 10 years (i.e. there is no ‘surge’).
• Non-citizens in Ireland are more integrated into the labour market than any other high-income EU country – that is, there is lower unemployment among non-citizens. So much for the ‘sponging-off-the-state’ argument.
• We have had far fewer asylum-seekers and we grant asylum to far fewer than most other high-income EU countries.

The claims of the Far Right and their allies collapse when we look to reality. 

There are many who get taken in by the Far Right and not because they are racist or anti-immigrant.  Many are confused, hurting, looking for answers.  Progressives must engage with this constituency with empathy, pointing out the reality and providing a better alternative for them, their families and their communities. 

As to the Far Right and their allies, I am loathe to use the label ‘racist’.  However, their manipulation of information can legitimately lead one to conclude that many, if not most, are either conviction-racists or instrumental-racists (i.e. they are not racist themselves but use racist arguments in pursuit of their agenda).  I’m not sure there is any objective difference.

But progressives should not be content to point out the failings of the other side.  Throughout Europe, the issue of immigration has divided the Left.  Its complexity – culturally, economically – means there are no simple answers.  It is imperative we create a space to hear a range of progressive viewpoints.   We don’t have to agree – indeed, we can disagree robustly – with different propositions and analysis.  However, to curtain-off the debate over migration-management leaves us with fewer tools to construct an alternative.

The Far Right – through its extremism and manipulation of facts – is trying to poison the immigration debate in order to polarise positions.  In reality, the Far Right doesn’t want an informed debate on immigration.  They want a shouting match.  They hope, in this atmosphere, to make gains.  We shouldn’t allow them that oxygen.  We should challenge them at every turn.

And engage in an inclusive dialogue throughout society that can win people over to a positive message – about the economic, social and cultural benefits of immigration and the immigrants themselves.

Comments

[Derek O'Flaherty]

And of course a great many of the migrants here from the US, UK Australia and NZ are part of the diaspora.

[Ted]

You don't tell us about the high retention rate of failed asylum applicants: endless appeals, hence hence high numbers in direct provision.

[Cllr Keith Redmond]

We were bound to agree on something eventually Michael! Keith.

[Michael Taft]

Derek - good point.

Ted - there's no comparative data on that. Don't know how Ireland's situation compares with other country. But we do know that there is a higher than average rejection rate on top of a low application rate compared to other high-income EU countries.

Keith - let's hope more to come. Don't be pessimistic!

[Dave]

The issue is 'Foreign Born' not 'Citizen'
The population of foreign born is around 18% as per the last census.
Seeing as that number was around 2% 20 years ago it reflects a massive shift in Irish demographics.
The entire study is an exercise in obfuscation

[Ted]

I appreciate that your research is comparative. And things may or may not take longer in other countries, but I wouldn't take any solace from that. The delays in Ireland are far too long regardless.

[Con]

nice use of labelling. attach 'far right' so that anyone even raising any objection is automatically marked. its cheap, its lazy.

you say you want a debate? an open honest debate? you don't. you're just hoping no one calls you out

there is a mountain of data proving you wrong from every possible angle. the problem is the debate usually centres on ''economics'' which is essentially modern astrology. If you must go down that road Danish economists found such a massive impact of non western migration on their state they began finding ways of limiting exposure. Douglas Murray talks about how the gov hired favourable ideologically aligned people like Jonathan Portes to rubber stamp their policy with cherrypicked data in his book Strange Death of Europe. social cohesion is destroyed by the type of mass migration we are seeing and seems to be in store....but hey at least we weren't racist!

[John Walsh]

You make a comparison with eg Sweden and admit they have integration problems . I doubt Irish people want the same to happen so now is the time to object . There are no unemployment stats for those asylum seekers that got residence here . The rate of false claims for those that apply in Ireland is still 90% . This figure is only reduced as refugees were taken at source .You have shown only non eu unemployment so that is not accurate as many came here to work .A better indication would be unemployment among those former asylum seekers who got residence and their nationality .The unemployment figures include the whole population when you see stats for those between 18 and 65 the percentage is much higher .
You show a distinct bias for the left so its not an impartial article .

[Michael Taft]

Dave - unfortunately, Ireland doesn't supply detailed data on foreign-born. And there's no 'country of birth' data for employment in Eurostat. That's why the use of citizens / non-citizens. If you know of a comparative database re: country of birth, pleas let me know.

Con - I said the Far Right distort data, not those engaged in an informed debate (regardless of position) on immigration. Not everyone who questions immigration policy is Far Right; but all/almost all Far Right are anti-immigration.

John Walsh - If you know of a database re: former asylum-seekers' employment and a 'false claim' rate, please let me know.

[Marcas Ó Doibhilin]

It's wonderful how people like Con upthread, who imagine they are refuting the gravamen of this post, in fact reinforce it.

[Alan]

Labour Force Survey is useful for actual unemployment figures.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveyquarter32018/

The far right have no interest in an honest debate on anything. But happily distort facts to suit their agenda.

[Andrew]

Dave is wrong in claiming the percentage of the population who were ‘foreign born’ was 2% 20 years ago. In the 1996 census it was 9.3%. That’s an increase of 9% over 20 years.

First, our greater diversity has brought cultural benefits; second, the increase is linked to our economic growth - in a multitude of ways, including driving that growth, and allowing us to reap benefits of the growth.

Interestingly, by focusing on ‘foreign born’, Dave is hopefully representing an acceptance of multicultural Ireland, once we reach the second generation - and I trust he abhors hypocrisy enough to complain about returning emigrants and there families as much as the ‘new Irish’.

Michael notes that the facts aren’t central to the ‘debates’ people try to have here, but hopefully we can agree (even Dave) that it’s bst to work with the actual numbers, rather than making them up.

[Michael Taft]

Alan - Thanks for that link.

Andrew - well said.

[Dave]

Michael you wrote the line 'Claims that Ireland has a high level of non-citizens'
This is misleading.
The issue for most people is that Ireland has a high level of Non Nationals i.e. foreigners.Not merely 'Citizens'
I realise that probably upsets you, horrifies you even.

[Pader B]

What sort nonsence is this. Anybody with eyes who can see common sence knows that foreign population in Ireland is more than 11.8%. It's more like 20% at this stage. But then again yer here to give out about the right wing cause apparently they don't like to use facts, well apparently the left don't either!

Could ye highlight the negative impact immigration is having in Ireland? Maybe the gangs sprouting up in Parts of Dublin, or about cases of the "New Irish" being involved in ISIS abroad. Or the cases amongst sexual assaults carried out by'Asian men' no no ofcourse not! That would be actually telling the truth for a change and the left don't like the truth.

[Bartholomew]

That’s a very useful set of figures, thank you. I’ve only just seen it now, a month later, but if you are still looking at it, I was wondering about your first conclusion:
‘Ireland has a relatively high level of non-citizens in its population. But this is down to the high level of UK citizens and citizens from other English-speaking countries (US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand)’.
Is this accurate? Your figures are as follows:

Total non-citizen - 11.8%

Subtract from this

UK - 2.5% (ie 19% of 11.8%)
US, Canada etc. - 0.5%
Asian, African etc. - 1.9%

This leaves just under 7%. I assume this consists of EU citizens (excluding UK). So this is the biggest block, nearly 3 times the size of UK citizens, or more than twice the English speaking group. So it would be more accurate to say that the relatively high level of non-citizens is principally down to those of EU origin.
(By the way, where are Russians counted - is it among ‘Asians’?)

[Gregory Finkelson]

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