The campaign’s first poll coming from Behaviour & Attitudes (the fieldwork was done prior to the election called, so the first published poll) shows progressives and Fianna Fail out in front with Fine Gael trailing badly.
The commentary will focus on Fianna Fail’s rise and Fine Gael’s decline. And while one might question the magnitude of the change between the two parties (in the previous B&A poll, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were even at 27 percent), unless it is an outsider, the poll shows a considerable swing against the current Government.
However, a third of voters want something different than the conservative parties. Pat Leahy of the Irish Times described the three choices facing the Irish electorate:
‘The early days have suggested that voters are faced with three broad choices. The first is to stick with Fine Gael as the leaders of the next government . . . The second choice is to make Fianna Fáil the largest party, and thus ensure they will lead the next government . . . The third choice is a radical break with the past, as represented by much of the non-Fianna Fáil opposition. This choice won’t lead the next government. But it will influence it greatly.’
According to the B&A poll, the third choice has more support than the first two. How can progressives build on this?
First, this week should see Fianna Fail publishing policies, notably economic policies. We will see what difference there is with Fine Gael (we will probably have to look hard). Progressives should be ready with their critiques.
Second, progressives should start making clear the few key points they will enter the post-election scenario with. This will help people to focus on what they can expect from voting progressive.
One thing this poll does show is that support for parties could be quite fluid and even volatile. The ‘third choice’ is very much on the agenda.
Comments