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February 11, 2020


Patrick Kinsella

One more push? SF's motive for new election may be strong, but it won't get us much closer to a Government for Change. SF candidates got 1st pref votes >1.3 quotas in 13 constituencies where they had only one candidate. Assume the broad pattern of votes and transfers doesn’t change (!). With luck and good vote management, that’s 13 possible gains, against these likely losses (crudely based on lowest first preference count): 2xGP, 2 each FF, SD and Inds, one each for Lab, SP, I4C and Rise. Gain for SF 13, loss for potential progressive alliance nine: net gain 4 hardly seems worth the risk.

Michael Taft

Patrick - thanks for that. I agree with your estimates. My hope would be that further gains could be made from conservative parties/independents, rather than progressives cannabalising itself. I do a lot of that these days - live in hope.

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