This is the second Sunday summary of US state-wide polls, focusing on the ‘competitive’ states in the US Presidential election (you can read the first summary here). The race will be determined by the Electoral College which is based on who wins at state level. Most states are fairly predictable. However, there are 12 states with 189 electoral votes (about 35 percent of all electoral votes) where the race will be won or lost. Of these 12 states, Trump won 10 back in 2016 with the Democrats winning two.
In 2016 Trump won 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227. Actually, the count should have been 306 to 232 but seven electors voted for minor candidates. So Biden needs to win 38 more electoral votes to be elected President.
I will use two polling aggregators: FiveThirtyEight and the Economist’s Forecasting the US Elections. Here’s what they are telling us on September 20th. This uses the US electoral colours – blue is Democrats and red is Republican.
(a) FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight show the race in competitive states tightening.
Looking first at states won by Republicans in 2016, Biden leads in most of them. However, in some of them, his lead is eroding; Florida and Wisconsin in particular. Florida is a key state. It has 29 votes – which would make up most of the 38 votes Biden needs. If we turn to the mid-east states, Biden has stronger leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump won each of these states with a margin of less than one percent. Together, these make up 46 votes – enough to elect Biden. However, Biden’s lead is shrinking in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Looking at the two states won by Democrats in 2016, Biden currently holds comfortable leads.
At this stage it is difficult to see Trump picking up ‘new’ votes.
(b) The Economist
The Economist, on the other hand, shows Biden widening his lead and closing some of the Trump leads.
In Florida and Wisconsin, Biden has stretched his lead while cutting Trump’s lead in Iowa and Ohio. In short, if Biden takes Florida and the three mid-east states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – it is game over. Biden could still afford to lose Florida if he can bring the mid-east states home.
And, again, Trump doesn’t look like taking some votes from the Democratic camp.
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If you’re a Biden supporter, you’d be happier with the Economist poll count. But with both of them, the shifts are, for the most part, minor. We will need a couple of more Sunday summaries to see if there is a trend that both aggregators share.
Taking the polls today, this is the Electoral College count. With 270 votes needed to win, Biden leads by 128 votes.
But it is early days. And the outcome in many states is within the margin of error. And a number of polling companies called it wrong in several states in 2016.
See you next week.
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