This is the sixth Sunday summary of US state-wide polls, focusing on the ‘competitive’ states in the US Presidential election. We’re not quite in the home stretch but we’re coming up to the last bend. Over the last few weeks we’ve seen Biden consolidate his lead in key swing states and even overtaken Trump where Republicans were leading. Many national polls give Biden a double-digit lead at the national level but as we know, it is how the individual states vote that matter. So where are we with a little over two weeks to go?
The race will be determined by the Electoral College which is based on who wins at state level. Most states are fairly predictable. However, there are 12 ‘competitive’ or swing states with 189 electoral votes (about 35 percent of all electoral votes) where the race will be won or lost. Of these 12 states, Trump won 10 with the Democrats winning two.
In 2016 Trump won 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227. Actually, the count should have been 306 to 232 but seven electors voted for minor candidates. So Biden needs to win 38 more electoral votes to be elected President.
I will use two polling aggregators: FiveThirtyEight and the Economist’s Forecasting the US Elections. Here’s what they are telling us on October 18th. This uses the US electoral colours – blue is Democrats and red is Republican.
(a) FiveThirtyEight
The striking thing about the polls – starting in mid-September, is how stable they are which reflects the polarised nature of the contest. The overwhelming majority of people made up their minds some time ago. The small amounts of undecideds are not sufficient to significantly alter the race.
For Biden, there are many positives. His lead is consistent in the three key Mid-East states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If all other states vote as they did in 2016 and Biden wins these states, he’s taking up residence in the White House.
But he has alternative routes to victory, even if he stumbles in one of the Mid-East states. If he wins Florida and/or Georgia and North Carolina, he will again cross the line. Any number of combinations could bring victory to Biden – especially if we throw in Arizona and Iowa.
For Trump, however, the situation is much more difficult. Let’s assume that Texas and even Ohio stay in the Republican column; if he can’t bring Florida across the line he’s in a lot of trouble. He also needs to hang on to at least two of the three Mid-East states with Pennsylvania being key. The problem for Trump is that, while Biden doesn’t have to win all the competitive states, Trump has to come close – especially as he is unlikely to turn New Hampshire and Nevada, which voted Democrat last time out.
(b) The Economist
The Economist tells a slightly different story. While Biden is still leading in key swing states – especially in the Mid-East – Trump is closing the gap over last week. He has turned Georgia back in the Republican column (marginally) and has even pulled slightly closer in the key Mid-East states. This might suggest that Biden has peaked and is now in a race to hold on. This suggests the race is tighter than what many commentators are suggesting.
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There are now 16 days left in the US Presidential race. Millions have of Americans have already voted through mail-in ballots and early voting. Much will depend on the success of Republican tactics in many states to suppress the vote. This could tip the balance in tight races in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. If the Economist trend holds, Trump may climb back into contention in a number of state races. If FiveThirtyEight holds Biden could be looking at an Electoral College landslide. And if the polls at state level get it wrong like they did in 2016 in many instances, it could be a long night.
No one should be calling this race yet.
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