The seventh Sunday summary of US state-wide polls and we are now in the home stretch with nine days left to the traditional polling date. A strange election, though; over 50 million Americans have already voted – nearly a third – producing predictions of the biggest poll in a century. And making poll trends coming into the election irrelevant for those who have voted. But with the number of key battleground states still very close, even fractional changes could have an impact.
The race will be determined by the Electoral College which is based on who wins at state level. Most states are fairly predictable. However, there are 12 ‘competitive’ or swing states with 189 electoral votes (about 35 percent of all electoral votes) where the race will be won or lost. Of these 12 states, Trump won 10 with the Democrats winning two in 2016.
In 2016 Trump won 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227. Actually, the count should have been 306 to 232 but seven electors voted for minor candidates. So Biden needs to win 38 more electoral votes to be elected President.
I will use two polling aggregators: FiveThirtyEight and the Economist’s Forecasting the US Elections. Here’s what they are telling us on October 25th. This uses the US electoral colours – blue is Democrats and red is Republican.
(a) FiveThirtyEight
If you’re a Biden supporter you’re probably biting your nails. Trump is closing the gap in most of the states, notably Florida with its 29 electoral votes. Florida is a must win for Trump; if he loses it has little chance of retaining the White House. For Biden, however, it would be a blow to lose the state but it wouldn’t’ be fatal. Biden’s lead has halved in the last two weeks.
Still, Biden supporters shouldn’t despair. The three key Mid-East states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are still firmly in his camp, even if the gap is narrowing slightly. Biden wins these three states, he wins.
(b) The Economist
The story is the same with the Economist aggregator. Biden’s lead is slipping in many states – especially Arizona and Florida. However, his support is holding up in the three key Mid East states which would give Biden the victory.
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There are now 9 days left in the US Presidential race. Millions have of Americans have already voted through mail-in ballots and early voting. Much will depend on the success of Republican tactics in many states to suppress the vote. This could tip the balance in tight races in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, if Biden maintains his lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it’s game over for the incumbent.
Next week: the last summary before the election date.
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