This is the fourth Sunday summary of US state-wide polls, focusing on the ‘competitive’ states in the US Presidential election. This is truly a summary of two halves. The first half is prior to Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. That half was looking like a strengthening of Biden’s position in key states as Trump managed to alienate significant sections of the electorate through his debate performance.
As to the second half – following Trump’s illness – there is universal agreement: No. One. Knows.
Let’s keep with the first half (there is no choice). The race will be determined by the Electoral College which is based on who wins at state level. Most states are fairly predictable. However, there are 12 ‘competitive’ or swing states with 189 electoral votes (about 35 percent of all electoral votes) where the race will be won or lost. Of these 12 states, Trump won 10 with the Democrats winning two.
In 2016 Trump won 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227. Actually, the count should have been 306 to 232 but seven electors voted for minor candidates. So Biden needs to win 38 more electoral votes to be elected President.
I will use two polling aggregators: FiveThirtyEight and the Economist’s Forecasting the US Elections. Here’s what they are telling us on October 4th. This uses the US electoral colours – blue is Democrats and red is Republican.
In this fourth summary week:
- Biden is maintaining his lead in the three key Mid-East states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (in the latter he has extended his lead)
- Georgia has become fully competitive with Biden now leading for the first time in four weeks. Ohio, which turned to Biden last week, remains marginally in the Democratic camp.
- Biden seems to have stopped his slide in Florida
- At this stage, among all the competitive states, Trump can only be optimistic about Texas
- As it stands, Biden leads in 10 of the 12 competitive states
Remember, Biden needs 38 electoral votes to win. If he takes Florida with its 29 votes, he’s well more than half way home. If he simply takes the three Mid-East of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he already has a lead – he gains 46 votes and the Presidency. Biden has other fall backs – Arizona and North Carolina – with 11 and 15 votes respectively. And if he can turn Ohio with its 18 votes and/or Georgia with its 16 votes, we could be looking at an Electoral College landslide.
(b) The Economist
The Economist tells pretty much the same story as FiveThirtyEight; in particular, Biden’s lead in the three Mid-East states. Georgia has turned blue while Biden has stopped his slide in Florida. The only difference is that Trump still maintains his lead in Ohio but it is narrowing.
As it stands, Biden leads in nine of the 12 states.
* * *
All in all, if you’re a Biden supporter you should be relatively happy – in particular the continuing strong trends in the Mid-East states with the potential to grab a couple of others.
Taking the polls today, this is the Electoral College count. With 270 votes needed to win, in FiveThirtyEight Biden leads by 171 votes. In the Economist, it is less due to Ohio remaining in the Republican camp.
That takes us up to the end of the first half with a month ago. How will Trump’s illness impact on the election? No one can say. This is unprecedented. Even long-time analysts and observers are not even venturing a guess. So we will have to wait over the next seven to 10 days to see how this plays out.
Comments