US Polls: Sunday Summary November 1st

This is the last weekend before the election on Tuesday, November 3^rd.  90 million Americans have already voted.  In some states (Texas, Hawaii) more people have already voted than voted in the 2016 election.  Analysts believe this could be the highest turnout since 1908.  So where do the polls stand with only two days to go?

The race will be determined by the Electoral College which is based on who wins at state level.  Most states are fairly predictable.  However, there are 12 ‘competitive’ or swing states with 189 electoral votes (about 35 percent of all electoral votes) where the race will be won or lost. Of these 12 states, Trump won 10 with the Democrats winning two in 2016.

In 2016 Trump won 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227.  Actually, the count should have been 306 to 232 but seven electors voted for minor candidates.  So Biden needs to win 38 more electoral votes to be elected President.

I will use two polling aggregators:  FiveThirtyEight and the Economist’s Forecasting the US Elections.  Here’s what they are telling us on November 1^st.  This uses the US electoral colours – blue is Democrats and red is Republican.

(a)          FiveThirtyEight

For Biden supporters, there is some good news and some not-so-good news. 

• Good news: the Democrats have increased their support in the key states of Michigan (8.9 percent) and Wisconsin (8.2 percent).  The two states would deliver 26 of the 38 electoral votes needed to win.  Further, Biden seems to have stabilised a smaller lead in North Carolina (2.6 percent) while enjoying the highest lead yet in Georgia, though it is within the margin of error (1.6 percent).

• On the other hand, Biden has slipped in Florida, falling from 4.4 percent to 1.7 percent. Though this is not a must win for Biden (it is, however, for Trump), it would make it a whole lot easier.  In another key state, Pennsylvania, Biden has slipped as well – from 7.2 percent three weeks ago to 4.9 percent.    And Trump has returned Iowa to the Republican column after Biden had been leading for three weeks. 

There is little likelihood of Trump picking up new votes (votes he didn’t get in 2016).  The only competitive states that went Democrat in the last election are Nevada and New Hampshire.  In Nevada, Biden has recorded a consistent 6 percent lead while in New Hampshire he leads in double digits. 

Still, it is all very close.

(b)          The Economist

The Economist, though it mirrors the FiveThirtyEight pretty closely, has slightly better news for Biden:

• While Biden is strengthening his lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, he is also consolidating his lead in Pennsylvania.
• While slipping in Florida, Biden has a slightly larger lead.

If the Economist is more on target, it will be a relatively early night.

The Electoral Vote Pathways

What are the ‘pathways’ to victory for Biden?  There are several.

• Florida: if Biden wins Florida it’s hard to see how he can be denied victory, especially with strong leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.  If this state goes Democrat, it will be an early night.

• Michigan and Wisconsin: if Biden doesn’t win Florida but takes these two states (as the polls strongly suggest), then all he needs is 12 votes.  Winning either Pennsylvania (20 votes), Georgia (16 votes) or North Carolina (15 votes) would do it.  So would winning Ohio (18 votes) or Texas (38 votes) but as things stand now, Trump looks likely to hold on to them – though they are still competitive and in the margin of error.

• The Nebraska Route: Here’s a pathway that will keep you on the edge of your seat.  Let’s say Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania but not any of the states mentioned above.  Biden can still win by taking Arizona (11 votes) and Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional District.  Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that divide their electoral votes by congressional district (all others are winner-take-all).  Each congressional district is worth one vote.  In 2016, Trump won this district by 2 percentage points.  A recent poll put Biden up by 3 percent but there isn’t sufficient polling to put this in perspective.  However, Trump visited the state in the last few days.  Since he’s going to win Nebraska overall, this suggests that internal Republic polling sees the congressional district as competitive and important.

So the key states to look out for are Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.  If we don’t know what’s happening there (or it does south for Biden), then Arizona and Nebraska come into play.  However, if Biden loses either Michigan or Wisconsin then the advantage could be with Trump.

Will We Know on Election Night?

At this rate, only a minority of the electorate will be voting on November 3^rd.  More than 90 million Americans have voted – early, in-person voting and mail-in ballots.  This represents 43 percent of the electorate.  One of the problems this raises is how will polling companies do their exit polls?  Another problem will be how long will take to count ballots.  In modern times, we knew who won on the night.  This could be very different. 

Each state regulates the election so there are different rules regarding the counting of mail-in ballot papers.  This will affect how long it will get the final result in a close contest.  The more time they have to process the ballots before election day, the quicker the result. This is when states start counting mail-in ballots:

• On Election Day: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
• One Day before Election: Iowa, Michigan
• Two to Five Days before Election: New Hampshire
• Six or more Days before Election: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina
• Before the Election but no set date: Ohio, Nevada

This is why we might expect Florida to report the final result early (they start six days early) but Pennsylvania doesn’t start until election day itself.

This is why you will hear the terms Red Mirage and Blue Tide.  The former indicates a situation where Trump has a lead in those voting on the day but early and mail-in ballots haven’t been counted.  The fear is that Trump will declare victory on incomplete vote counts.  The Blue Tide refers to Biden catching up to Trump when the early and mail-in ballots start coming in.

* * *

This is all too close to call.  If you’re a Biden supporter you’re probably in a slightly better space than a Trump supporter.  But the polls have to show that they have improved their methodologies, given how wrong many of them got it at state level.  That’s why the Democrats are on edge and the Republicans are hopeful.

We’ll know sometime later this week.

I will hopefully be live tweeting the election count on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.  If you’re one of those late night election addicts (and can’t sleep), check it out at @notesonthefront