It is two years to the next election. What are the potential alternatives to the current coalition? What are the chances of the first government led by some other party other than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael? What are the possibilities for a progressive breakthrough? This will be the first election where there is a realistic prospect that neither Fianna Fail nor Fine Gael will lead the government.
With the help of a great website – Ireland Political Indicator, maintained by Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. - we can chart governmental possibilities using opinion poll surveys.
Current Government
The current coalition started out well, mostly due to a strong performance from Fine Gael coming off the handling of the early part of the Covid crisis while it led a caretaker government.
Support for the combined three government parties fell from a high of 53 percent to 40 percent in the summer of last year. Since then, support has been rising, boosted by a generally favourable response to the budget measures, bouncing back to 44.7 percent. The Government parties are still falling short of their 2020 election result (50.2 percent) but they may be happy the decline has been reversed.
Alternative Governments
There are other possible governments.
(a) Left Leaning
This would involve a coalition of Sinn Fein, Labour, Social Democrats and S-PBP.
In the last election the combined percentage vote for Sinn Fein, Labour, Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit was 34.4 percent. This has risen to 42 percent; but this is due to Sinn Fein’s performance – seeing their support increase from 24 percent to 33 percent. The other three progressive parties – individually and collectively - have stagnated, bouncing between 9 and 11 percent (in 2020 they received 10 percent).
Ending the year at 42 percent, we can be hopeful – though this support is trending downwards as Government support increases. The problem, apart from all parties’ willingness to forge a coalition, is that support is fragmented among four parties. Seat totals could suffer without a strong transfer rate between the parties. Any seat dividend going to Sinn Fein could come at the expense of other progressive parties.
A progressive government could be boosted by the inclusion of the Greens. This would, however, require a five-party coalition. The only Irish government to have that many parties was the inter-party government of 1948-51.
(b) Centrist-leaning
Another alternative government would be Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail.
Support for Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail combined has remained above 50 percent since autumn 2021, though, it has fallen back recently. The big question is how realistic this coalition option is. Stephen Collins notes that data from the recent Ipsos poll (October 2022) showed that 71 percent of Fianna Fail voters supported the arrangement with Fine Gael, while only 8 percent chose a new arrangement with Sinn Fein. Of course, this can change dramatically in post-election coalition negotiations (e.g. Fianna Fail and the PDs in 1989, Labour and Fianna Fail in 1992). Nonetheless, it raises a warning sign about the potential of splits, breakaways or loss of support.
(c) Right-wing Led Minority Government
There is a coalition that isn’t quite on the agenda, but could be depending on future trends; namely a Fine Gael or Fianna Fail-led minority government including Labour, Social Democrats and the Greens.
At this stage, such coalitions would result in a minority government, with a Fine Gael-led coalition ending 2022 at 34 percent while a Fianna Fail arrangement was at 29 percent. it would seem a tall order for either combination to put together a majority in the Dáil. But both parties have shown themselves capable of putting together fragmented governments in the past. Recently, the 2016 government saw three independent cabinet ministers reflecting the nine independent TDs who voted for the Fine Gael Taoiseach nominee. But it relied on a supply-and-confidence relationship with Fianna Fail, an option that may not be available in the future.
The Taoiseach-Makers
Both the Greens and the independents could have a key role in the composition of the next government.
Support for both these forces has remained steady. The Greens are running at between 4 and 5 percent while the Independents and others (including Aontu) have remained around the 13 percent mark. These two parties could play pivotal roles in government formation. The Greens, with their focus on environmental issues, have considerably flexibility in negotiating with a range of parties and alternative coalition arrangements.
The independents and others are largely drawn from either gene-pool or parochial politics. The three technical groups – Regional, Rural and Independent – have a total of 21 deputies. Of these, only three are identifiably progressive: Catherine Connolly, Thomas Pringle and Joan Collins. To the extent that ideologically-compatible TDs can negotiate collectively, they could have influence on both a government programme and cabinet membership. And this could bolster the chances of a return of the current government or a right-wing led minority government.
What do Progressives Want?
What does all this mean for progressives? It depends on what they want. For Sinn Fein, that question is easier answered: they want to lead the next government. Their preference may be for a left-leaning coalition but this will depend, first, on whether other parties will enter such a coalition and, second, whether it can achieve a Dáil majority; neither of which is guaranteed.
What about Labour, Social Democrats and the S-PBP? The first issue they must confront is marginalisation. With such low poll numbers, the potential for significant losses with a small movement of first preferences or transfers is high. Nearly half of the TDs elected in the three parties did not achieve a quota in the last election (8 out of 17). In some cases where a quota was achieved, there was a heavy reliance on Sinn Fein transfers. In Dublin South Central, Brid Smith saw 55 percent of her final vote come from Sinn Fein transfers. A second Sinn Fein candidate in the constituency will put pressure on that seat.
The second issue is what kind of government will allow the smaller progressive parties the maximum opportunity to implement their policies? Of the potential four formations, two lead to participation in government – one led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, and one led by Sinn Fein. It is highly likely the latter that provides such an opportunity. Of course, one or two of the progressive parties could help put together essentially a repeat of the current government. But their influence would be severely limited.
The danger is that parties, pursuing post-election manoeuvrability, seek refuge in electoral non-speak; for example, ‘we campaign on an independent basis and then we negotiate whatever the electoral result is.’ This position avoids providing leadership on that most vital of issues – what will the next government look like. It leaves open the possibility of lining up behind conservative forces. Most of all, it won’t work. During elections, debate rarely focusses on the issues. It will be one long question with variations on a theme: will you go in with this party, will you go in with that party?
It is understandable that smaller parties are wary of arrangements in which they can be subsumed. Interestingly, we have recently seen innovations in government formation. 2016 saw the first confidence-and-supply arrangement between political parties that sustained a minority Government for four years. 2020 saw the first rotating Taoisigh. Further innovations could be promoted to protect the legitimate interests of all parties in a multi-party coalition.
But more importantly, the party (or parties or forces) that will lead a progressive government will not be based solely on the number of TDs. It will be those who lead the policy debate – innovative, imaginative and common-sense policies that can challenge the conservative consensus that dominates so much of government policy. The progressive programme has yet to be written. We will need more than just ‘spend more’ policies (though we will have to spend more and increase tax revenue in tandem). Who will write them? The ones who do will be the leaders, regardless of party size.
Ultimately, all progressives – in political parties, trade unions, civil society groups – have to ask: do they want to be part of a historic re-setting of electoral competition in Ireland. In the 1980s, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael took over 80 percent of the vote together. In 2022 they averaged 40 percent in poll surveys. We now have the opportunity to finally break this conservative domination and open up a new, more progressive chapter in political history. While there will be debates over policies and priorities, over the shape of the coalition, the question comes back to what kind of government do we want.
We have two years to make up our minds.
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