While much focus is on the far right’s racist and often violent agenda, little attention has been paid to the potential impact of their demands on the economy. These demands, if met, would have the capacity to drive the economy into long-term stagnation, suppress business activity, penalise older people, and undermine public services. In short, their political programme will result in a poorer society with less capacity to provide jobs, decent wages and public services.
Brexit Ireland
The Far right – and much of the debate - conflates immigrants, asylum seekers / international protection applicants and refuges under the overall rubric of ‘immigration’. They promise to ‘limit’ immigration and, at the extreme, to stop it altogether under the slogan ‘Ireland is full’. The following focuses on immigration; namely, labour force immigration, or migrant workers.
Non-Irish citizens make up nearly 20 percent of total employment with more than half, or 56 percent, coming from the EU and the UK. The European Union and the Common Travel Area (CTA) with the UK guarantee free movement of labour. In short, there is nothing a future Far right government could do about most immigration in the labour force.
Unless, of course, they want to annul free movement of labour. That’s what the Irish Freedom Party and its President, Herman Kelly and candidate in the European elections, want: withdrawal from the EU, or an Irexit. While other parties and candidates might not be as upfront about their agenda, a strong current of anti-EU politics runs through the Far right, with their claims to fight ‘globalisation’ and ‘EU federalism’, flirting with quasi-Brexit positions. The point here is that without withdrawal from the EU and / or the CTA, there is nothing the Far right could do about most labour force immigration.
Immigration from the Rest of the World
Therefore, the far right would need to focus their anti-immigration policies on non-EU countries (excluding the UK) if they were to make good their promises to limit migrants coming here to work. Currently, there are more than a quarter of a million non-EU immigrants working in the Irish economy. For the most part non-EU immigrants require work permits which can only be issued where there are no Irish or EU citizens available, able and willing to take up the job (the Labour Market Needs Test). Many people assume they come to Ireland and do jobs that Irish won’t (for instance, low-paid manual work) but this is mistaken.
Non-EU/UK immigrants work across the economy.
- Over 50,000 – or 22 percent of all non-EU citizens – work in the health sector: doctors, nurses, healthcare assistants, porters, administrative staff.
- A further 68,000 – or nearly 30 percent – work in the high-income sectors: Information & Communication, Professional & Scientific and Financial services.
- Over 24,000 work in industry, primarily manufacturing
- 55,000 – or 23 percent - work in the lower value-added sectors: hospitality, distributive and administrative services.
Unfortunately, the CSO doesn’t have a number for workers in the agriculture sector, but we can reasonably assume that a significant proportion of ‘all other sectors’ is made up of agricultural workers.
Let’s focus on two of these sectors.
First, the high-waged Information & Communication (CT) sector: Ireland has the highest share of ICT employment in the EU. Whatever about the international tax strategies of the big tech companies, there is real productivity here – real jobs, real incomes, real spending power, and real tax revenue.
However, growth is based almost entirely on non-EU employment. CSO data only goes back to the first quarter 2021 but in the last nearly three years, non-EU workers made up 70 percent of the increase in all ICT employment. Without these workers, jobs would be left unfilled and business activity reduced, moving elsewhere to access labour. This would see a reduction in investment with a danger of dis-investment. Reduced employment, consumer and tax revenue – that is a likely scenario resulting from far right policies to limit immigration.
Second, non-EU workers made up 42 percent of employment growth in the health sector over the last three years. Without this employment, fewer older people and those with disabilities would be cared for at home, fewer people would be cared for in nursing homes, fewer patients would be seen in A&E departments. A recent leaflet from a far right local election candidate demanded:
‘Limit legal immigration to relieve pressure on public services.’
However, without non-EU immigration, health services would be put under incredible pressure as rising vacancies and unfilled positions would reduce care for those in need. This would especially impact older people. Just at the point when we need to ramp employment in the caring professions to provide assistance to older people, the far right would be cutting it.
Of course, far right activists could say they would allow immigration to fill high-skilled, high-income posts and similar positions in the public services, but otherwise they would limit immigration. However, this is likely to have a similar economically-debilitating impact.
In the hospitality sector there are 24,000 non-EU workers employed, or more than one-in-eight. Notably, the employment increase since mid-2021 has been filled by non-EU labour. Without access to immigrants, many hotels and restaurants would have to close or reduce opening hours, resulting in higher unemployment, under-employment and reduced earnings for workers regardless of their citizenship.
The above points to the need to not only maintain immigration into Ireland, but to increase it if we are to continue expanding business activity, investment and economic growth. Reducing immigration will result in business closures, reduced public services and lower incomes.
But are They Working?
Another part of the far right narrative is that people come to Ireland to live ‘off the state’. However, like so many of their claims, this has no basis in reality.
Three-quarters of non-EU citizens of working age here in Ireland are employed, compared to 60 percent among Irish citizens (though many would be categorised as students). There is only a marginal difference in the unemployment rate. The fact is that non-EU citizens come here to work, study and contribute to the economy and society.
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If the far right ever came to power the result would be socio-economic degradation and, at worst, isolation if they tried to wrench Ireland out of the EU and the CTA.
The above focuses on labour market migration. Clearly, the issues regarding the housing and processing of asylum-seekers are causing considerable disquiet and unrest. The Government is continuing to fail those seeking international protection and wider society. Better, more urgent, policy options could have been (and still could be) pursued – as Dr. Lorcan Sirr points out here. However, the far right has staked its policy programme on reducing immigration. That’s what has been discussed here.
To satisfy its racist agenda, the far right would gladly see the economy stagnate, with fewer jobs, lower wages and investment, reduced entrepreneurial opportunities and less ability to provide the public services necessary to sustain high living standards. Foreign investment would move to other countries and indigenous start-ups would be cancelled. Ironically, the far right starts off by calling for an end to immigration and end up with a policy platform that would drive up emigration, as young Irish look elsewhere to fulfil their life opportunities.
Many far right activists claim that they only want a debate on immigration. If so, then they should admit from the outset that they cannot do anything about most labour force immigration (unless we withdraw from the EU and / or CTA). And if their programme is to target non-EU workers, they should be honest about the consequences for all of our living standards. But they won’t be.
Economic and social impoverishment goes hand-in-hand with racism. That’s all the far right can offer.
Youth unemployment under 25s has been in double digits for over a year. While they aren't in competition for science jobs, that they aren't they aren't getting starter jobs in retail, hospitality, factory work is a problem. But we might be winning on a bargin, and there is something different with under 25s, perhaps they just don't want to work.
An immigrant who came here yesterday is in the same boat as everyone else competing with the immigrant who comes tomorrow competing for wages housing, etc. Unlimited supply of labour is not in my interest, when academics who will work for cheeper start coming perhaps you will see it's not in yours either.
The health service example ignores that we do train up a lot of medical staff but lose them to other countries. Perhaps we are winning on a bargin but for some, Ireland is their home, not an incorporated company and would actually like to be able to work in the country where their family is.
Fair enough, right wing economic s is shit but so is left wing by the looks of it. Someone in a direct provision centre with bed and board paid for working in a meat processing factory, and the Irish couple paying for accommodation, and for the accommodation of their unemployed son. It's nuts. Any immigrant that gets integrated into the system and part of the same race will tell you it's nuts.
Be honest about it, it's all got to do with property prices. They should have tumbled after covid and the success of working from home. More visas for retail and meet factories, not clearing failed asylum seekers, it's about inflating another bubble on property isn't it and anyone who is in to property left or right is in on it.
Posted by: Jim | May 07, 2024 at 09:09 PM