‘We do have to focus on that now and be ready, because the key thing I think is we really do need a change of government’ - Ivanna Bacik, TD
‘We need a change of government and we need a government that will act in the interests of working people . . .’ - Mick Barry, TD
‘It is now clearer to me than ever that a change of government cannot come soon enough’ – Holly Cairns, TD
‘This is a time for fresh leadership, a time for change; not just a change of Taoiseach, but a change of Government and a change of direction’ – Mary Lou McDonald, TD
It was not a good day for progressive politics. Though there were bright spots for individual parties – Social Democrats doubling their local election seats, Labour electing a MEP and Sinn Fein electing two – the larger narrative is one of stagnation if local election results are any guide.
What is striking is that over 20 years – from boom years, through recession, economic recovery, Covid and up to the cost-of-living crisis – the progressive vote has remained remarkably stable. There have been changes in the composition with Labour hitting its high point in 2009 while Sinn Fein’s high point was in 2014. However, the overall result is depressingly steady.
Focussing on 2024:
- Sinn Fein increased its support but it was below recent national polls and below expectations. Most notably, it is still well off its 2014 performance.
- Labour continued to slide from a high point of nearly 15 percent in 2009. Their 2024 result was their worst performance since at least 1967 (and probably before but the data is more difficult to access).
- Despite doubling their seats, the Social Democrats’ vote is highly concentrated: nearly 30 percent of their seats come from just one council (Dublin City) with low organisational breadth outside the capital.
- In addition, the Green wave of 2019 washed out while the radical vote (PbP-Sol) fell back slightly from a very small base.
No, not the best of days.
Pat Leahy, in a pre-election analysis that missed the mark on a number of issues, nonetheless asked a valid question:
‘You’d wonder what it would take for politicians on the left to stand up and articulate a set of common values that could form the basis for a governing bloc.’
Indeed, what would it take and what would it look like? Actually, we have the outlines of a template from France. In the immediate aftermath of parliamentary elections called by President Macron, France’s four main leftwing parties – socialists, communists, radicals and greens - agreed to form a ‘New Popular Front’ (NPF) and campaign on a common platform. That this was done in quick time among parties which have had, at times, a toxic relationship (e.g. the Socialist Party and Melenchon’s France Unbound) is a credit to their political seriousness and serious ambition. This seriousness and ambition should be a lesson to Irish progressives.
Of course, the NPF is an urgent response to the possibility of the far-right National Rally winning a parliamentary majority. That particular urgency is not current in Ireland at this point (but watch this space). Irish progressives, though, have other urgencies; namely, relevance and long-term domination by right-wing parties (notice how I didn’t use the phrase ‘centrist parties’). Irish progressive parties need to confront certain realities and ask difficult questions.
- For Sinn Fein, it needs to reassess the prospect of coalescing with Fianna Fail. Is that a realistic possibility now? Is it desirable? For Sinn Fein, it may be the best – and possibly only – option to look to Left and green parties if it wants to enter government. If so, what are the policy implications of a more progressive orientation?
- Labour and the Social Democrats need to ask themselves – is their only destiny to compete with one another to become the third short leg in the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail stool? Do they have an ambition to drive a parliamentary majority for a progressive government?
- Fair dues to People before Profit for publishing ‘The Case for a Left Government’. It shows that some people are thinking about an alternative. But their approach is to exclude, rather than include. They need to ask whether they will engage positively with a potential progressive alignment (which is not necessarily ‘Left’) with a view to participation.
- The Greens have participated in two right-wing led governments in the last 15 years. Thie first time didn’t end too well (they lost all their Dail seats). This second time around – after losing more than half their local authority seats and both European seats – doesn’t look a whole lot better. Wouldn’t a stronger, greener future be had in a progressive government? Clearly their voters believe that – in the European elections, more Green transfers went to progressive candidates than Fianna Fail and Fine Gael combined.
We will probably need to walk before starting to run. At the very least parties committed to a progressive government could:
(a) Commit to working together post-election to put together a progressive government; and
(b) Promote transfers between the parties committed to a progressive government
This minimalist arrangement allows for considerable manoeuvrability. Parties would still be independent, campaigning on an independent programme with issues concerning a government programme to be negotiated following the election. Similarly, the issue of who would lead this progressive bloc would be settled only after the election.
And if the parliamentary majority is not there post-election, individual parties are free to do what they want; though, hopefully, the experience of working together – and benefitting from extra votes and seats – would dissuade them from entering into an arrangement with the Right.
Unfortunately, there are more reasons not to work together, too many to address here. Many would be legitimate; others, merely sectarian. The most common objection centres around the argument that it would be better to campaign on an ‘independent’ basis, and see what the electorate throws up. However, a progressive government is such a sea-change that it will need to be fought for, need to be argued for. You don’t do this after the election. Waiting until the election results suggests that a progressive government is something you stumble into through a fortunate arithmetic.
Imagine, however, the impact of even a minimalist cooperation platform. No longer are activists and supporters campaigning to get an extra few seats for their party. They would be campaigning for power, to actually lead a government. No longer is media coverage consumed with the question of coalition composition (who will go in with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael?); rather, it is about which bloc will win. The story changes dramatically. Progressive parties are no longer small parties. They have the same equivalence as the larger right-sing parties.
In truth, even cooperating, it would be an uphill climb for progressives (what’s new?). But even running the right-wing bloc close would change the political dynamic. The recent national polls prior to the locals and European elections, showed that the progressive vote, excluding the Greens, was still competitive at 35 percent, compared to the combined right-wing vote at 39 percent. Add in the Greends to the progressive bloc and its a dead heat.
Most of all, the next general election would be a contest, not just between a number of parties but between two visions of a future Ireland – a progressive vision or ‘more of the same’.
In such a contest, anything could happen.
It would probably have to be rebel Greens at this point not the official leadership. After an election even single issue and parish pump independent T.Ds would need to be considered
Posted by: John Ryan | July 10, 2024 at 11:59 PM